大越期货棉花早报-20260106

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on cotton is that the short - term bullish factors for the main 05 contract remain unchanged, and it will continue the volatile upward trend with possible fluctuations like "three steps forward, two steps back". The bullish factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026, a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, increased downstream replenishment due to rising cotton prices, and positive indicators such as the 20 - day moving average trend, k - line position, and main force's long - position trend. However, there are also bearish factors such as a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, a large number of new cotton listings, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [4][5][6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - There is no information about the previous day's review in the provided content. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: In 2026, the Xinjiang cotton planting area is expected to be reduced by over 10%. Different reports have different data on cotton production and consumption. For example, the ICAC 11 - month report shows a 2025/2026 production of 2540 tons and consumption of 2500 tons, while the USDA 11 - month report shows a production of 2614.5 tons and consumption of 2588.3 tons. In November, textile and clothing exports were 23.869 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. Cotton imports in November were 120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%, and cotton yarn imports were 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%. The Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 data shows a production of 6.7 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.35 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are considered bullish [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,615, and the basis for the 05 contract is 960, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.35 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - Main Force Position: The position is bullish, with an increase in net long positions, and the main force's trend is bullish [4]. - Expectations: The factors driving this round of rebound include a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, a month - on - month increase in exports, an increase in downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish stocks due to rising cotton prices, and significant policy - regulated reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area in the new year [4]. 3. Today's Focus - There is no information about today's focus in the provided content. 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Data: In 2025/2026, the total global production is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.873 million tons, imports are 9.522 million tons, exports are 9.524 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons [9][10]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Data: In 2025/2026, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, imports are 9.71442 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, exports are 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65 [12]. - Ministry of Agriculture's Cotton Supply - Demand Data: In 2025/2026, the beginning inventory is 9.853 million tons, production is 7.278 million tons, imports are 1.1 million tons, consumption is 8.1 million tons, and the ending inventory is 10.116 million tons [14]. 5. Position Data - There is no information about position data in the provided content.