大越期货菜粕早报-20260106

Report Information - Report Name: Rapeseed Meal Morning Report - Date: January 6, 2026 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 - Qualification: F0283029 (Practicing Qualification), Z0010442 (Investment Consulting Qualification) [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate between 2340 and 2400. The market has returned to an oscillatory pattern, awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it will maintain an oscillatory pattern due to the off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is in the 2340 - 2400 range. The market is affected by the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and awaits the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports the price. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and maintains an oscillatory pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand has entered the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Trading Data: The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal on January 5 was 608 [13]. - Price Summary: Rapeseed meal futures prices fluctuate, and the spot price follows. The spot premium remains at a relatively high level. On January 5, the price of the main 2605 contract was 2361, and the spot price in Fujian was 2530 [15][18]. - Warehouse Receipt Statistics: The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts have been 0 from December 23 to January 5 [17]. - Aquatic Product Situation: Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [35]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal futures have decreased, and funds have flowed in [9].