大越期货豆粕早报-20260106

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2740 - 2800. The market is influenced by the interaction of U.S. soybean trends and demand improvement, with news being mixed and short - term oscillation likely [9]. - The soybean A2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4200 - 4300. The market is affected by the execution of the China - U.S. trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, with the price supported by the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Hints No information provided in the report. 2. Recent News - The preliminary China - U.S. tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and U.S. soybean weather are still uncertain. The U.S. market is oscillating above the thousand - point mark [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained high. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal rebounded from a low level in December, supporting price expectations [13]. - The high inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, the potential for weather speculation in U.S. soybean - producing areas, and the impact of the preliminary China - U.S. trade negotiation agreement have kept soybean meal in a short - term range - bound state [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Long factors: The preliminary China - U.S. trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans; the inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of U.S. and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Short factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - Long factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [16]. - Short factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 3050, with a basis of 296, indicating a premium over futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 117.02 million tons, a 0.22% increase from last week and a 71.18% increase from the same period last year [9]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4220, with a basis of - 23, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 710.25 million tons, an 8.53% increase from last week and a 19.48% increase from the same period last year [11]. - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [33]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume generally increased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [34]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed in [9]. - Soybeans: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed in [11]. 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Conditions - Price and Transaction: The price of soybean meal futures rose and then fell, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a high premium. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [17][19][24]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed over time, with the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 and soybean No. 2 showing different trends [21]. - Supply - Side Conditions: The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal output in November increased year - on - year. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans decreased from a high level, while the soybean meal inventory remained high [26][49]. - Demand - Side Conditions: The procurement of domestic downstream enterprises rebounded from a low level, and the提货 volume remained at a relatively high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the stocking demand had a good outlook [28][53]. - International Market: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina in different years were provided, as well as the monthly supply - demand reports of the USDA in the past six months [35][40][45]. - Livestock Market: The pig inventory showed an upward trend, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [57][59].