焦煤焦炭早报（2026-1-6）-20260106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For Coking Coal: The supply of coking coal has improved after some mines resumed production after the New Year's Day. However, due to the influence of coke price cuts, coking coal prices have been falling, and new orders have declined. With the squeeze on coking profits, the signal of coking coal price cuts is obvious, and downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is limited. In the short term, due to winter environmental protection requirements, downstream coking and steel enterprises have increased maintenance and production cuts, and the demand for raw coal has declined. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price may run weakly [2]. - For Coke: The current profits of coke enterprises are continuously compressed, and some coke enterprises in some areas have fallen into losses, with a small number of coke enterprises limiting production. Although the daily consumption of coke by steel mills has increased slightly, the supply of coke is still relatively loose, and steel mills still have a strong willingness to reduce prices. With the raw material price still falling slightly, it is expected that coke will run weakly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Coking Coal - Fundamentals: After the New Year's Day, the supply has improved, but prices have fallen due to coke price cuts, and new orders have decreased. Downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is limited [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1100, and the basis is 19.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from last week, including 801 tons in steel mills, 295 tons in ports, and 861 tons in independent coke enterprises [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [3]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position increases [3]. - Expectation: Due to winter environmental protection requirements, downstream demand has declined, and it is expected that the short - term price will run weakly [2]. - Factors: Bullish factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth; bearish factors include slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Daily Views - Coke - Fundamentals: The profits of coke enterprises are continuously compressed, some are in losses, and a small number are limiting production. The daily consumption of coke by steel mills has increased slightly, and the shipment of coke enterprises has improved [6]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1590, and the basis is - 58.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week, including 626 tons in steel mills, 187 tons in ports, and 45 tons in independent coke enterprises [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net long, and the long position decreases [6]. - Expectation: The supply of coke is relatively loose, steel mills have a strong willingness to reduce prices, and it is expected that coke will run weakly in the short term [6]. - Factors: Bullish factors include rising hot metal production and rising blast furnace operating rate; bearish factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial overdraft of replenishment demand [8]. Price The prices of metallurgical coke in various ports on January 5th (17:30) are provided, with most prices showing a decline of 10 [10]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. - Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. Other Data - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises in the country is 74.48% [40]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants in the country is 25 yuan [44].