大越期货尿素早报-20260106

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Report Author: Zhu Tianyi from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [3] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Views - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. However, the overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand [4]. - The UR2605 contract basis is - 48, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.8%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons (- 5.5), showing a neutral situation. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is a bullish sign. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound. Industrial demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement, inventory is being destocked, but the overall domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - The current daily production and operating rate are stable, and the comprehensive inventory continues to decline. The demand side, including agricultural and industrial demand, is mainly based on on - demand procurement, and the overall procurement is not active. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are stable, and the reserve demand continues to slow down. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports, and recent information on new export quotas still affects the futures market. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1720 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. Basis Analysis - The UR2605 contract basis is - 48, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.8%, which is bearish [4]. Inventory Analysis - The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons (- 5.5), showing a neutral situation [4]. Futures Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is a bullish sign [4]. Main Position Analysis - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. Expectation - The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound. Industrial demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement, inventory is being destocked, but the overall domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: Inventory de - stocking [5]. - Bearish factors: Domestic oversupply [5]. - Main logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 5: Market Data Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1720, with a change of + 10. The Shandong spot price is 1720, with a change of + 10. The Henan spot price is 1720, with no change. The FOB China price is 2794 [6]. Futures Market - The price of the 05 contract is 1768, with a change of + 19. The basis is - 48, with a change of - 9. The price of UR01 is 1682, with a change of + 21. The price of UR05 is 1768, with a change of + 19. The price of UR09 is 1730, with a change of + 15 [6]. Inventory Data - The number of warehouse receipts is 12,376, with a change of - 5. The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons, with a change of - 0.0. The UR factory inventory is 101.9 million tons, with a change of - 0.0. The UR port inventory is 17.2 million tons, with a change of - 0.0 [6]. Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]