大越期货天胶早报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [6][11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease while tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are high. The market has support at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [6] Fundamental Data - Supply: Supply is increasing [6][8] - Inventory: Exchange inventories are rising, and Qingdao region inventories have recently rebounded. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; Qingdao region inventory increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [6][16][19] - Import: Import volume is rising [22] - Downstream Consumption: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production decreased year - on - year, and the tire industry's exports are rebounding [25][28][31][34] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely to Rise Factors: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] - Likely to Fall Factors: Increasing supply, negative domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [8] Basis - The spot price is 15,550, and the basis is - 240, showing a bearish signal. The basis strengthened on January 5th [6][37] Spot Price - The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) rose on January 5th, and there is a US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone [10][13]