建信期货铁矿石日评-20260106

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, while the demand shows a slight recovery but remains weak overall. The fundamental pressure on iron ore remains unchanged. Considering the weakening sentiment in the black sector and the fundamental pressure, it is expected that the upward momentum of iron ore prices will be limited, and the prices may turn to a weakening oscillation in the future [10][11]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - Market Review: On January 5, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly. After opening higher, it oscillated and closed at 797.0 yuan/ton, up 0.95%. The prices of major iron ore outer disks increased by 0 - 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port increased by 2 - 6 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The KDJ indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2605 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and J values turning up and the D value continuing to decline, showing a golden cross trend. The red column of the MACD indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2605 contract turned to expand [7][9]. - Future Outlook: Last week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil increased significantly, and the arrival volume also increased. The overseas mines rushed to ship at the end of the year, and the subsequent arrival volume will further increase. On the demand side, the total output of the five major steel products turned up, and the daily average molten iron output increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, mainly affected by the repair of steel profits. The sustainability needs to be observed. In terms of inventory, currently, steel mills maintain the state of replenishing inventory on demand. The inventory available days increased by 1 day compared with last week to 20 days, and the pre - holiday replenishment was not obvious. The port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching nearly 160 million tons, the highest since late February 2022. It is expected that the port inventory will still accumulate slightly in the future [10][11]. 3.2 Industry News - On January 3, according to CCTV News, US President Trump claimed that the US had successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and taken them out of Venezuela. Trump said that the operation was carried out jointly with the US law enforcement department. Details will be announced later. A press conference will be held at Mar - a - Lago at 11:00 EST on the 3rd. - On January 3, according to CCTV International News, US President Trump told the US media that the US would deeply intervene in Venezuela's oil industry. Trump said that he would evaluate "whether Venezuelan opposition leader Machado should lead Venezuela" and "there is still a vice - president in Venezuela." - Venezuelan Acting President Rodriguez said that she had sent an invitation to the US government to start cooperation on a "cooperation agenda." According to CNN, Rodriguez pointed out that this agenda would be committed to "promoting common development within the framework of international law to strengthen long - lasting social coexistence." She also said that Venezuela would "give priority" to promoting "balanced and mutually respectful international relations" with the US and the region [12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract at Qingdao Port, the shipment volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes of iron ore at 45 ports, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the trading volumes of iron ore at major ports, the inventory available days of iron ore for steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and the port clearance volume, the tax - free molten iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and the iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and the capacity utilization rate, the national daily average molten iron output, the apparent consumption volume of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][20][22].