Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The A-share index has rebounded continuously, with significant inflows into broad-based ETFs recently. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. It is recommended to continue holding bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios on dips [3]. - The current ample liquidity supports the bond market, but supply concerns are constraining the performance of long-term bonds. It is expected that market consensus behavior may amplify volatility, and the stabilization or recovery of long-term bonds may not occur until the supply structure of government bonds becomes clearer. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and seeing, while cash-and-carry and curve strategies recommend focusing on positive spreads and steepening the yield curve, respectively [3]. - In January, precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility due to uncertainties such as the impact of US economic data on Fed policy and geopolitical tensions in South America. It is recommended to pay attention to long volatility strategies [3]. Summary by Directory Financial Stock Index Futures - A-share index has rebounded continuously, with significant inflows into broad-based ETFs recently. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. It is recommended to continue holding bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios on dips [3]. Bond Futures - Supply concerns and the strengthening of equities are pressuring bond futures. It is expected that market consensus behavior may amplify volatility, and the stabilization or recovery of long-term bonds may not occur until the supply structure of government bonds becomes clearer. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and seeing, while cash-and-carry and curve strategies recommend focusing on positive spreads and steepening the yield curve, respectively [3]. Precious Metals - In January, precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility due to uncertainties such as the impact of US economic data on Fed policy and geopolitical tensions in South America. It is recommended to pay attention to long volatility strategies [3]. Commodities Base Metals - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to wait for pullbacks to enter long positions. Copper prices have risen sharply, and it is recommended to hold long positions with caution. Zinc prices are rising, and it is recommended to hold long positions and continue holding cross-market arbitrage positions [3]. Ferrous Metals - Steel prices are expected to remain range-bound, with recommended trading ranges for rebar and hot-rolled coils. Iron ore prices are supported by steel mill restocking expectations, and short-term range trading is recommended. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to be weak, and short positions are recommended [3]. Energy and Chemicals - PX and PTA are expected to be weak in the short term and are recommended to be bought at low levels in the medium term. Short fiber is expected to follow raw material prices, and it is recommended to short the processing margin on rallies. Ethylene glycol is expected to be under pressure in January, and it is recommended to sell out-of-the-money call options and conduct reverse calendar spreads [3]. Agricultural Products - Sugar prices are expected to be weak on rebounds, and it is recommended to pay attention to resistance levels. Cotton prices are expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to pay attention to downstream restocking. Apple prices are expected to be strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions with put option protection [3].
广发期货日评-20260106
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-01-06 02:53