大越期货沥青期货早报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the research report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - side: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production was 2158,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 29.3624%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.78 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 490,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.39%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 961,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.05%. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [8]. - Demand - side: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 27.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt was 7.4823%, a month - on - month increase of 0.38 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 20%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 25%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost - side: The daily asphalt processing profit was 188.99 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 627.0286 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.39%. The asphalt processing profit remained flat, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Comprehensive Judgment: Fundamentals are bearish; the basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; inventory is neutral; the disk is bullish; the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 3105 - 3161 [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply - side: Refineries have recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure [8]. - Demand - side: Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish and fails to meet expectations [9]. - Cost - side: Crude oil is weakening, and cost support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Likely Factors: Relatively high crude oil costs provide some support [11]. - Negative Factors: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. - Main Logic: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [13]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures Contracts: The prices of contracts from 01 to 05 all increased, with increases ranging from 3.13% to 3.89%. The basis of contracts from 01 to 05 showed different degrees of change [16]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 770,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.91%. Factory inventory was 572,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.18%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 650,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38.30% [9][16]. - Profit: The daily asphalt processing profit was 188.99 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 627.0286 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.39% [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China regions from 2020 to 2026, which helps investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [18][19][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads between asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for spread trading analysis [23][24]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2026, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26][27]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt crack spreads against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2026, which is beneficial for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [29][30][31]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the relative value of these commodities [33][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2026, helping to understand the spot market situation [36][37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [38][39]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [41][42][43]. - Supply - side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: The report shows the historical trends of weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [44][45]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [46][47]. - Production Volume: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volumes from 2019 to 2026 [49][50]. - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend: The report shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [52][54]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The report shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [55][56]. - Operating Rate: The report shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt operating rates from 2021 to 2026 [58][59]. - Maintenance Loss Estimate: The report shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimates from 2018 to 2026 [61][62]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [64][65][66]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [68][69]. - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: The report shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026 [71][72]. - Import and Export Situation: - Asphalt Export and Import Trends: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [74][75]. - Korean Asphalt Import Price Spread Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the import price spread of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [77][78][79]. - Demand - side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - Downstream Demand: - Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [86][87]. - New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [89]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - Asphalt Operating Rate: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2026 [95][96]. - Asphalt Operating Rate by Use: The report shows the historical trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2026 [98][99]. - Downstream Operating Conditions: The report shows the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [100][101][103]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory [106][107].