大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260106

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards supply - dominated. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 123,900 - 130,120 yuan/ton. The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [9][13]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 22,420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%, equal to the historical average. In December 2025, the output was 99,200 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 97,970 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23%. The import volume in December 2025 was 26,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,500 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.46% [8][9]. - Demand Side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 99,894 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,581 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.22%. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - Cost Side: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate is 118,137 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - day flat rate, and the production income is 696 yuan/ton, showing a profit. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 116,523 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 1.71%, and the production income is - 1,177 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation [9][10]. - Other Indicators: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis on January 5 shows that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 119,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is - 10,480 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The overall inventory decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, equal to the historical average, which is neutral. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Overview: The prices of most lithium - related products increased. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 119,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [15]. - Supply and Demand Data: On the supply side, the monthly total output of lithium carbonate in December 2025 was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%. The import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 27.59% month - on - month, and the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 7.64% month - on - month. On the demand side, the monthly output of some downstream products decreased, but the monthly total battery loading volume of power batteries increased by 11.18% month - on - month [18].