原木期货日报-20260106

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The log futures fluctuated yesterday, with the main contract LG2603 closing at 772.5 yuan per cubic meter. The spot prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The 01 contract continued to be deeply discounted for delivery, and the buyer's willingness to take delivery was still poor. The current log futures price fluctuates little. With low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments, the inventory pressure is small. However, the demand remains weak, limiting the upside potential. Overall, the contradictions are insufficient, and the upward and downward driving forces are limited. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate within a range [2][3]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - The price of log2601 on January 5 was 753.5, up 16.5 (2.24%) from December 31. The price of log2603 was 772.5, down 3.5 (-0.45%). The price of log2605 was 785.0, down 1.5 (-0.19%). The 01 - 03 spread increased by 20.0, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 18.0. The 03 contract basis increased by 3.5 [2]. - The spot prices of most radiation pine and spruce in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged, except for the Rizhao Port spruce 11.8, which decreased by 20 (-1.69%) [2]. - The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine decreased by 2 (-1.79%), and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged [2]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on January 5 was 6.976, with a 0% change from January 4. The import theoretical cost (calculated at a 15% over - size) was 755.73 yuan, down 12.83 (-2%) from January 4 [2]. Supply: Monthly - The port shipping volume in the 48th week was 191.4 million cubic meters, up 2.2 (1.16%) from the 47th week. The number of new ships in the 49th week was 52.0, up 3.0 (6.12%) [2]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of December 26, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 254 million cubic meters, down 6 million cubic meters (-2.31%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 185.20, up 3.9 (2.15%); in Jiangsu, it was 52.10, down 9.4 (-15.30%) [2][3]. Demand: Daily Average Out - bound Volume (Weekly) - As of December 26, the daily average out - bound volume of logs was 5.83 million cubic meters, down 0.49 million cubic meters (-8%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 2.79, down 0.55 (-16%); in Jiangsu, it was 2.52, down 0.08 (-3%) [2][3]. Forecast of Arrival of New Zealand Coniferous Logs at 13 Chinese Ports - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, it is expected that 15 ships of New Zealand coniferous logs will arrive, an increase of 6 ships (67% week - on - week) compared with the previous week. The total arrival volume is 51.05 million cubic meters, an increase of 20.45 million cubic meters (66.8% week - on - week) [3].