大越期货甲醇早报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend this week, with the MA2605 contract oscillating between 2,180 - 2,270 yuan/ton. The market will be influenced by the game between macro - sentiment and fundamental reality. Although the Venezuela attack event has brought short - term risk premiums and boosted market sentiment, the current fundamental support is not strong. Domestic enterprise operating rates remain high, some downstream demand is slow, and port inventories have increased significantly [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For methanol 2605, the fundamentals show that although the Venezuela attack event has not directly pushed up crude oil futures, it has brought short - term risk premiums. However, the current fundamental support is weak. The domestic enterprise operating rate is stable above 80%, some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, and the upstream maintains a low - inventory sales strategy. The traditional downstream demand in winter is slow to follow up, and some downstream enterprises have shut down. The market is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. The basis shows that the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2,245 yuan/ton, with a basis of 30 for the 05 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports has increased significantly by 113,200 tons to 1.1316 million tons, and the overall available methanol supply in coastal areas has increased by 39,300 tons to 634,400 tons. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the average. The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions. It is expected that the methanol price will show a moderately strong and volatile trend this week, with the MA2605 contract oscillating between 2,180 - 2,270 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: Some devices have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinyae; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late May; some CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Likely to be Bearish: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling; some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventories due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price Data: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 693 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 258 US dollars/ton, the import cost is 2,247 yuan/ton, CFR Southeast Asia is 321 US dollars/ton. The spot prices in different regions of China have changed to varying degrees, with Jiangsu rising by 1.74% to 2,220 yuan/ton, Shandong remaining unchanged at 2,310 yuan/ton, Hebei remaining unchanged at 2,055 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia rising by 2.64% to 1,848 yuan/ton, and Fujian rising by 1.13% to 2,235 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract is 2,215 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous period. The basis is 5 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous period. The import spread is 3 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period [8][9][11]. - Operating Rate Data: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, down 3.81% from the previous period. The operating rates in different regions have also changed, with East China remaining unchanged at 80.65%, Shandong dropping by 2.39% to 68.71%, Southwest dropping by 1.22% to 44.06%, and Northwest dropping by 3.55% to 81.54% [8]. - Inventory Data: The inventory in East China ports is 755,900 tons, an increase of 26,400 tons from the previous period, and the inventory in South China ports is 412,700 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous period [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Device Maintenance: Many domestic methanol production enterprises' devices are in maintenance or shutdown status. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling and other enterprises' devices are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and maintenance losses [57]. - Foreign Device Maintenance: Some foreign methanol production enterprises' devices are also in different operating states. For example, some Iranian enterprises' devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and some enterprises in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, the United States and other countries' devices are operating normally or have completed maintenance [58]. - Olefin Device Maintenance: Some olefin production enterprises' devices are in maintenance or normal operation. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices are in synchronous maintenance, while some enterprises such as Yan'an Energy and Shenhua Yulin are operating stably [59].