上海甲级写字楼市场2025Q4：短期需求回暖难阻市场寻底进程

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the Shanghai Grade A office market, suggesting a "Hold" rating due to ongoing market challenges and a slow recovery process [1][3]. Core Insights - The Shanghai Grade A office market is showing initial signs of demand rebound, with a quarterly net absorption of 132,000 square meters driven by the take-up of high-quality projects. However, the overall market momentum remains weak, with an expected annual net absorption of only 267,000 square meters for 2025, which is less than half of the previous year's level [4][7]. - Rental rates are under pressure, with an annual cumulative decline of 10.3%, marking the largest drop in five years, indicating that the supply-demand dynamics have not improved significantly [7][8]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - The projected new supply for 2026 is 847,000 square meters, with a net absorption forecast of 267,000 square meters for the entire year of 2025 [4]. - The market stock as of Q4 2025 is 18.11 million square meters, with vacancy rates in the CBD core area at 45% and the DBD secondary core area at 55% [4][6]. Market Segmentation - Major demand sectors for Q4 2025 include logistics and transportation (38%), professional services (19%), and finance (14%) [4][6]. - The report highlights that the CBD core area is experiencing a slight recovery in net absorption, while the overall market still faces significant challenges [7]. Rental Trends - The effective rental rates are projected to continue declining, with a significant drop observed in various sub-markets, reflecting the ongoing pressure on landlords [7][8]. - Specific rental rates in the CBD core area range from 6.52 to 17.7 RMB per square meter per day, with notable declines across different districts [7].