瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20260106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Each major sugar - producing country is in the process of sugarcane crushing, with India's sugar production increasing significantly year - on - year. As of December 24, 2025, Thailand had produced 100.05 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 16.67 million tons. As of December 15, Indian sugarcane had a cumulative sugar production of 779 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 28%. In the domestic market, as of the current incomplete statistics, all 73 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 2025/26 season, with a large difference in the current sugar extraction rate; 38 sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, 7 more than the same period last year. However, the market expects a significant year - on - year decrease in Guangxi's sugar production in December, and there are large differences in sales volume estimates. Before the release of December production and sales data, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,259 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2; the main contract's open interest is 427,408 lots, a month - on - month increase of 4,843 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 6,005, unchanged month - on - month; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 65,309 lots. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar (within the quota) is 4,085 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 36; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar (within the quota) is 4,131 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 34 [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar (outside the quota, 50% tariff) is 5,177 yuan/ton; the estimated import price of Thai sugar (outside the quota, 50% tariff) is 5,236 yuan/ton. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,340 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10; the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,360 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, a year - on - year increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, a year - on - year increase of 5.24 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sales volume of Guangxi's cane sugar is 8.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 593.35 million tons. The cumulative production of Yunnan's cane sugar is 4.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 237.4 million tons; Brazil's total sugar exports are 330.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90.3 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within the quota) is 1,226 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (within the quota) is 1,180 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 34. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (outside the quota, 50% tariff) is 134 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 48; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (outside the quota, 50% tariff) is 75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 45. The monthly import volume of sugar is 44 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31 million tons; the cumulative import volume of sugar is 434 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 44 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 130.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 42 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1,045.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.5 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.14%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 9.11%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 11.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 [2] Industry News - As of the end of December 2025 in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Guangdong Province was 993,620 tons (1,237,660 tons in the same period last year), the cumulative sugar production was 86,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29,300 tons, the sugar extraction rate was 8.72%, lower than the same period last year, and the sales volume was 17,200 tons. The ICE raw - sugar futures closed higher on Monday, with traders betting that the annual rebalancing of the commodity index would support the market. The most actively traded March raw - sugar futures rose 0.13 cents or 0.89%, settling at 14.73 cents per pound [2]