瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260106

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Some previously shut - down urea production units have resumed operation, leading to an increase in domestic urea output. With 3 companies planning to halt production and 5 shut - down companies possibly resuming production this week, the probability of output increase is high [2]. - Agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, trading atmosphere is tepid, and downstream buyers are resistant to high - priced goods, preferring a just - in - time procurement strategy. Industrial demand maintains a rigid procurement pattern [2]. - Due to the impact of some unit overhauls and the proper advancement of reserves and rigid demand, domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline last week. Considering some unit restarts, enterprise inventories may slightly increase this week [2]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1740 - 1800 in the short term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1778 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 33 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The open interest of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 230,560 lots, up 11,964 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 30,527, up 1,171 [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 12,619, up 243 [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui have increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is - 38 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remain unchanged at 355 and 400 US dollars/ton respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 17.7 million tons, up 3.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 101.92 million tons, down 4.97 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises is 80.29%, up 1.52 percentage points; the daily output is 194,200 tons, up 3,700 tons [2]. - Urea export volume is 60 million tons, down 60 million tons; the monthly output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 33.89%, down 3.86 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 47.65%, down 10.42 percentage points [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 143 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is - 108 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 million tons, up 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,200 tons, down 300 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 31, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 101.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.97 million tons and a 4.65% decline. The decline rate has narrowed [2]. - As of December 31, China's urea port sample inventory was 17.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 million tons and a 2.82% decline. Port changes were minor, and the pace of factory shipments to ports slowed down near the holiday [2]. - As of December 31, China's urea output was 1.3591 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 257,000 tons and a 1.93% increase; the average daily output was 194,200 tons, up 37,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 80.29%, up 1.52 percentage points [2]. Suggestions for Attention - The operating rate of enterprises fluctuates little. Attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions [2]. - Pay attention to enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].