合成橡胶产业日报-20260106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to sufficient spot resources and increased production load of some manufacturers, the supply continues to increase, and downstream parking and maintenance affect short - term raw material procurement. It is expected that the inventory level will further rise this week. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday and continued to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. With the resumption around the 4th, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may rise slightly this week. - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,200 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,830 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the position of the main contract is 37,293 lots, down 2,944 lots. - The synthetic rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons, unchanged. [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical in different regions is 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 80 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; Brent crude oil is 61.76 US dollars/barrel, up 1.01 US dollars; Naphtha CFR Japan is 522.5 US dollars/ton, down 7.63 US dollars. - The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR China price of butadiene is 975 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 58.32 US dollars/barrel, up 1 US dollar; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 8,950 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. [2] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 71.17%, up 0.56 percentage points. - The port inventory of butadiene is 44,700 tons, up 1,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.94%, down 1.28 percentage points. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, down 0.75 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 76.76%, up 0.5 percentage points. - The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 334 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the weekly social inventory is 3.45 million tons, up 0.05 million tons. - The weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 26,300 tons, down 2,550 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 7,180 tons, up 1,490 tons. [2] 3.4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.05 days, up 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 47.05 days, up 0.19 days. [2] 3.5. Industry News - As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.53%, down 3.83 percentage points month - on - month and 11.05 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 57.93%, down 3.76 percentage points month - on - month and up 1.37 percentage points year - on - year. - In December, the output of butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, up 1.35 million tons month - on - month (10.38%) and 1.97% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, up 4.65 percentage points month - on - month and down 2.68 percentage points year - on - year. - As of December 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 3.35 million tons, down 0.10 million tons (3.07%) from the previous period. [2]