瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260106

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic Yunnan rubber - producing area is in the non - tapping period, and the Hainan area is almost at the end of the tapping season. It is expected to fully enter the non - tapping period next week. The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate increasing month - on - month. - Before the holiday, rubber prices fluctuate at a high level. Some tire enterprises have maintenance and holidays. Except for a small amount of replenishment at low prices, most are in a wait - and - see state, and procurement is cautious. The decline in the total outbound volume at Qingdao Port leads to a significant increase in the total inventory. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some continued to control production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. Due to some enterprises having about 3 days of maintenance arrangements and gradually resuming around the 4th, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,450 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,250 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,050 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 260 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 30 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. - The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,010 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,040 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 55 yuan/ton. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 199,609 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 17,689 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 74,434 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 3,853 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 45,601 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,974 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 15,481 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,297 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 100,690 tons, with no month - on - month change; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 57,959 tons, with no month - on - month change. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,650 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,890 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,885 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 US dollars/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 160 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 940 yuan/ton. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,238 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 129 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 228 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 76 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 59.07 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.92 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 55.55 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06 Thai baht/kg. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.7 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 17.4 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 45,800 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 59.55%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.4 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 69.35%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.7 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.05 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.06%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.3%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.18%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.18%, with no month - on - month change. [2] Industry News - In December 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. - As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.8%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 5.21 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.70 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.49 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.34 percentage points. - As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 57.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.76 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.37 percentage points. [2]