瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro sentiment is warm, and industrial products mainly rose during the day. EB2602 closed up at 6,811 yuan/ton. The impact of the shutdown of the 450,000 - ton plant of Bohua last week expanded, and the output and capacity utilization rate of styrene decreased month - on - month. The downstream EPS operating rate dropped significantly, the UPR operating rate decreased month - on - month, and the operating rates of PS, ABS, and styrene - butadiene rubber increased month - on - month. The absolute level of changes in factory and port inventories is not large, and the trend of explicit inventory depletion has slowed down. Non - integrated plants turned from loss to profit, and the profitability of integrated plants expanded. There are no recent news of major styrene plant shutdowns or restarts, and the domestic output and capacity utilization rate are expected to change little. EPS maintains a low operating rate due to the off - season of demand and high inventory, and the load of PS and ABS plants has no obvious adjustment. Currently, the overall downstream profit is low, and the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to start work is suppressed. In terms of cost, the market believes that it will take time for Venezuela's crude oil production to recover, and international oil prices fluctuated and rose yesterday. Overall, styrene will gradually shift from a tight balance to a wide balance in January, and the supply - demand drive is weak. In the short term, EB2602 is expected to fluctuate, with the range expected to be around 6,700 - 6,900 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene futures was 6,811 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 72 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 255,208 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 14,594 lots. The long position of the top 20 holders of styrene futures was 361,224 lots, a month - on - month increase of 10,030 lots; the net long position was - 33,503 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 762 lots; the short position was 394,727 lots, a month - on - month increase of 10,792 lots. The closing price of the March contract was 6,862 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 68 yuan/ton. The open interest of the active contract was 300,124 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 2,551 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts was 200 lots, a month - on - month increase of 200 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6,792 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price was 839 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price was 849 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price in the Northeast region was 6,625 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the mainstream price in the South China region was 6,965 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in the North China region was 6,710 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in the East China region was 6,860 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 55 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The CIF price of pure benzene in Taiwan was 746 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 726 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price was 675 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 272 US dollars/ton; the FD US Gulf price was 430 US dollars/ton. The FOB price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 53 US cents/gallon, with no month - on - month change; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 764 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 26 US dollars/ton. The market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,300 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the market price in the East China market was 5,290 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the market price in the North China market was 5,250 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall operating rate of styrene was 70.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. The national inventory of styrene was 171,760 tons, a month - on - month increase of 800 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port was 132,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,500 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 77,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 43.64%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.92%; the operating rate of ABS was 69.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%; the operating rate of PS was 60.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the operating rate of UPR was 36%, a month - on - month decrease of 2%; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 80.52%, a month - on - month increase of 1.14% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From December 26 to January 1, the output of styrene factories was 352,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%; the capacity utilization rate was 70.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. The operating rate of downstream EPS decreased by 8.92% month - on - month to 43.64%, the operating rate of PS increased by 1.8% month - on - month to 60.4%, the operating rate of ABS increased by 0.5% month - on - month to 69.9%, the operating rate of UPR decreased by 2% month - on - month to 36%, and the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 1.14% month - on - month to 80.52%. As of December 25, the inventory of styrene factories was 171,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.47%. As of January 5, the inventory in East China ports was 132,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.68%; the inventory in South China ports was 20,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.16%. On January 4, the non - integrated profit of styrene was 139.35 yuan/ton. On December 31, the integrated profit of styrene was 723.78 yuan/ton [2].