沪铜产业日报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC processing index in the raw material end of the fundamentals declines slightly, and the expectation of tight ore persists, so the cost - support logic of copper prices is solid. The supply of refined copper in China will gradually slow down. The high - level copper price restrains downstream purchases, and the spot market trading sentiment becomes cautious. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and cautious demand, with accumulated social inventory. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows an upward trend. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 105,320 yuan/ton, up 3,970 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 13,342 US dollars/ton, up 350.5 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 223,647 lots, up 7,332 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 45,864 lots, down 3,287 lots. LME copper inventory is 142,550 tons, down 2,775 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 145,342 tons, up 33,639 tons. The LME copper注销仓单 quantity is 32,650 tons, down 2,125 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of cathode copper is 93,271 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 103,665 yuan/ton, up 3,090 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 100,660 yuan/ton, up 1,325 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 47 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 37.5 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,655 yuan/ton, down 880 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 41.98 US dollars/ton, up 3.38 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 74,700 tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 44.98 US dollars/thousand tons, down 0.08 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 90,920 yuan/metal ton, up 1,300 yuan; the price in Yunnan is 91,620 yuan/metal ton, up 1,300 yuan. The south processing fee of blister copper is 2,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the north processing fee is 1,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 1.236 million tons, up 32,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,590 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,950 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 2.226 million tons, up 222,000 tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 7,859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 2.15 million pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 24.32%, up 2.51 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.54%, up 1.85 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 30.27%, up 0.0294 percentage points. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.49, down 0.0065 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, the US ISM manufacturing index dropped slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and hitting a new low since October 2024. Premier Li Qiang of the State Council conducted research in Guangdong, emphasizing the improvement of the industrial ecosystem. Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a document to promote green consumption. The preliminary estimate of the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in December 2025 is 1.57 million, with a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume in 2025 is 15.33 million, with a year - on - year increase of 25%. Gree Electric Appliance promised not to increase the price of household air - conditioners and has no "aluminum for copper" plan [2]