瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market fundamentals are mixed, with coal and coke futures prices rebounding from their lows, ore prices remaining strong, and the downward trend of the black sector slowing down, providing support for hot-rolled coils. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,263 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the trading volume is 1,274,085 lots, down 20,441 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is 22,252 lots, down 6,347 lots. The HC5 - 10 contract spread is - 19 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 152 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The HC warehouse receipt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 132,188 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou it is 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan it is 3,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin it is 3,160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 37 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is - 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 802 yuan/wet ton, down 7 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (ex - tax) is 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 158.6194 million tons, up 3.538 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 486,000 tons, down 13,700 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.4383 million tons, up 14,300 tons. The inventory of billets in Hebei is 1.2661 million tons, up 86,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.96%, up 0.66 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.28%, up 0.32 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 2.9354 million tons, up 16,300 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 74.98%, up 0.41 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 805,200 tons, down 29,000 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 2.967 million tons, down 106,000 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 9.48 million tons, up 200,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 3.5316 million vehicles, up 172,900 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 3.429 million vehicles, up 106,900 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 15.026 million units, up 822,000 units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 9.442 million units, up 654,000 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 12.013 million units, up 978,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Hebei Province has drafted the Interim Measures for Reward for Reporting Illegally New - added Steel Production Capacity (Draft for Comment) and is soliciting public opinions. The Passenger Car Association preliminarily estimates that the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles of national manufacturers in December 2025 is 1.57 million, a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in 2025 is expected to be 15.33 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% [2]