有色早报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the copper market, the domestic market is affected by high prices with reduced downstream purchasing willingness. Attention should be paid to price support near key levels. Macro - level factors like the domestic risk preference and Fed's actions, and industrial - level factors like the narrowing of the New York spread and non - US high premiums need to be monitored [1]. - In the aluminum market, domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption are weakening, but low inventory and strong expectations support the current high prices [1]. - Regarding the zinc market, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary reduction in supply at the end of the year. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities for internal - external trading, and positive arbitrage opportunities for monthly spreads [2]. - For the nickel market, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between policy and fundamentals due to Indonesia's quota plan [4]. - In the stainless - steel market, the fundamentals remain weak, but short - term price rebounds are driven by Indonesia's policy [7]. - Regarding the lead market, lead prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. - For the tin market, there are signs of marginal weakening in the fundamentals, and it can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter of 2026, but there is also a risk of significant downward fluctuations if the macro situation is disappointing [12]. - In the industrial silicon market, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with costs, and in the long - term, prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [15][16]. - For the lithium carbonate market, downstream demand is mixed, with raw material supply tight and lithium salt inventory decreasing. The market is supported by the new energy vehicle subsidy policy [20]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 26, 2025 to January 5, 2026, the spot premium of Shanghai copper increased by 220, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 1382, and the Shanghai copper warehouse receipts increased by 8507. LME inventory decreased by 4875 [1]. - Market Outlook: Domestic market is affected by high prices, and attention should be paid to macro - level factors and industrial - level factors [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 26, 2025 to January 5, 2026, Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 850, and the spot import profit increased by 309.19. LME inventory decreased by 5000 [1]. - Market Situation: Domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption are weakening, but low inventory and strong expectations support high prices [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 26, 2025 to January 5, 2026, Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 650, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1775 [2]. - Market Analysis: The LME 0 - 3M spread is in contango, supply is facing challenges, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [2]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From December 26, 2025 to January 5, 2026, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1000, and the LME inventory decreased by 246 [3][4]. - Market Situation: Short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between policy and fundamentals due to Indonesia's quota plan [4]. Stainless Steel - Price Changes: From December 26, 2025 to January 5, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price increased by 200, and the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 100 [7]. - Market Outlook: Fundamentals remain weak, but short - term price rebounds are driven by Indonesia's policy [7]. Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: Lead prices followed the macro trend to rise. The spot import profit decreased, and the LME inventory decreased. The domestic five - region social inventory remained low at 1.84 million tons [8][9]. - Market Analysis: Supply and demand are in a complex situation, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: Tin prices fluctuated downwards. The LME inventory increased slightly, and the domestic inventory decreased [12]. - Market Outlook: There are signs of marginal weakening in the fundamentals. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter of 2026, but there is a risk of significant downward fluctuations if the macro situation is disappointing [12]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: The basis of 421 grade in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 130, and the basis of 553 grade in East China and Tianjin also showed an increase. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged [15]. - Market Outlook: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with costs, and in the long - term, prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: The SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1000, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1500. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged [20]. - Market Situation: Downstream demand is mixed, with raw material supply tight and lithium salt inventory decreasing. The market is supported by the new energy vehicle subsidy policy [20].