建信期货工业硅日报-20260107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures price rose and then fell, with the SI2605 contract price at 8900 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37%. The spot price remained stable. The industrial silicon fundamentals are relatively neutral compared to stronger varieties, lacking policy imagination space. The 1 - month spot market trading was dull, raw material prices were stable, and the supply was at a seasonal low. The expected output in January is about 350,000 tons, and there will be increasing production pressure during the wet season after the second quarter. The demand side lacks growth. The market sentiment drives short - term price fluctuations, but the overall spot price is stable and has not broken through the upward space, with increasing resistance above 9000 yuan/ton [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price of the SI2605 contract was 8900 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.37%, a trading volume of 460,467 lots, an open interest of 234,611 lots (a net increase of 17,319 lots). The top twenty long positions had a net increase of 8,524 lots, and the short positions had a net increase of 12,431 lots. The spot price remained stable, with the 553 - grade price in Sichuan at 9300 yuan/ton, in Yunnan at 8900 yuan/ton; the 421 - grade price in Sichuan at 9900 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia at 9550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Outlook - The commodity index has rebounded strongly recently, and the risk - taking preference of long - position funds has increased sharply. However, the industrial silicon fundamentals are relatively neutral. There is no policy - driven potential. In January, the spot market trading was dull, raw material prices were stable, and the supply was at a seasonal low. The expected output in January is about 350,000 tons, and there will be increasing production pressure during the wet season after the second quarter. The demand side lacks growth. The organic silicon monomer operating rate was 72.85% in December, and the concentrated production cuts were not significantly realized. The latest weekly operating rate was maintained at 69.61%. The polysilicon output in December was 116,900 tons, and in the current situation, polysilicon can only cut production, with little chance of growth. The market sentiment drives short - term price fluctuations, but the overall spot price is stable and has not broken through the upward space, with increasing resistance above 9000 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Market News - On January 6, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt volume on the GZEE was 10,687 lots, an increase of 467 lots from the previous trading day. In the fourth week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 456,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 24.08%. In the fourth week of December, the weekly industrial silicon output was 81,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.68% and a year - on - year increase of 9.35% [6].