建信期货棉花日报-20260107

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: January 7, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 2. Core View - Zhengzhou cotton continued its upward trend. After the holiday, with limited changes in the fundamentals and the boost of sentiment in the commodity market, after the short - term speculation on the expected reduction of planting, other positive factors are needed for further support. In January, the pre - Spring Festival restocking situation of downstream enterprises can be observed, with strong pressure at the integer - level resistance levels and a phased convergence space for the internal - external price difference [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Domestic Spot Market: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed - price quotes for 41 - 31 grade/dual 29/less than 3% impurity machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang's Kashgar were mostly above 15,300 yuan on a conditioned weight basis, and above 15,400 yuan in northern Xinjiang. The low basis in Kashgar was CF05 + 800 - 900, and in northern Xinjiang it was CF05 + 950 and above [7] - Domestic Yarn and Fabric Market: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average, with mainly rigid - demand sales. The prices of pure - cotton yarn remained stable overall, and some manufacturers with low inventory pressure continued to raise prices. The sales in the pure - cotton grey fabric market remained weak, with no increase in sales volume and average new order volume [7] - International Market: As of the week ending December 25, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27% and a 31% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 31,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4% but an 11% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The application and issuance of China's 1% tariff import quota are about to start, the net long position of the CFTC US cotton fund has continued to rise, and the external market has recovered [8] - Domestic Supply and Demand: As of January 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume in China was 6.5789 million tons, an increase of 36,400 tons from the previous day. There is still some upward pressure on the estimated output of the 2025/26 season. The downstream product prices have strengthened steadily following the cotton price. Although the operating rate of the downstream industry has decreased slightly, the finished - product inventory has also decreased, and the overall inventory pressure is not large [8] 3.2 Industry News - India has resumed imposing an 11% tariff on cotton imports since January 1, 2026, which is expected to reduce the domestic supply in India and push up the domestic spot price [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, inter - contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [14][16][17]