LPG早报-20260107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Daily Viewpoint: On Monday, the futures market showed strong performance due to positive sentiment in energy - chemical products caused by geopolitical factors, rising overseas prices, and strong LPG spot prices. The 02 - 03 spread was 94 (-10), and the 03 - 04 spread was - 185 (-25). As of 8 pm, FEI and CP paper prices rose by $4.25 and $8.25 respectively compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Weekly Viewpoint: The domestic market fluctuated this week, rising after the high - opening of CP on Wednesday and then falling back. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 spread was - 184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 30 to 6398. Domestic civil gas prices were differentiated, with the cheapest deliverable being Shandong civil gas at 4250 (-20). Overseas prices rose, and the January CP official prices for propane and butane were 520/525 (+35/+30). The domestic - overseas price relationship strengthened. Overall, the Venezuela event may affect crude oil and thus LPG prices, and the overseas LPG market has near - term support. Domestically, the domestic - overseas price ratio is high but the basis is low. The strong spot and poor PDH profits may lead to negative feedback, and future drivers may be bearish. Attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH plant conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data - Price Data: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylation oil showed various changes. For example, South China LPG rose from 4510 on December 29, 2025, to 4865 on January 6, 2026. The daily change on January 6, 2026, showed a 5 - point increase in South China LPG, 44 points in East China LPG, etc. [1] - Spread and Basis Data: The 02 - 03 spread and 03 - 04 spread changed both on a daily and weekly basis. The basis of 02 also changed. For example, on a daily basis, the 02 - 03 spread was 94 (-10), and on a weekly basis, it was 119 (+7) [1]. - Overseas Market Data: FEI and CP paper prices rose on January 6. The January CP official prices for propane and butane were higher than before. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 15 (down 5.5 from the previous period). East China propane arrival premium, AFEI, Middle East, and US propane January FOB premiums also changed [1].