农产品早报-20260107

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from the Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center on January 7, 2026 [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Analysis Price Data | Product | Location | Price on 2025/12/29 | Price on 2026/01/06 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | Changchun | 2160 | 2160 | 0 | | | Jinzhou | 2280 | 2260 | 0 | | | Weifang | 2244 | 2230 | 0 | | | Shekou | 2430 | 2410 | -10 | | Starch | Heilongjiang | 2750 | 2750 | 0 | | | Weifang | 2800 | 2800 | 0 | [2] Market Analysis - Corn: Short - term, market sentiment is weak due to the directional auction policy, but farmers' price - holding and limited supply keep spot prices firm. After New Year's Day, downstream seasonal restocking may drive prices up. Long - term, focus on import and domestic auction policies [3] - Starch: Short - term, slow de - stocking and weak downstream restocking keep prices low, but cost constraints limit price cuts, and post - New Year's Day restocking may boost prices. Long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor [3] Group 3: Sugar Analysis Price Data | Location | Price on 2025/12/29 | Price on 2026/01/06 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Liuzhou | 5420 | 5380 | - 40 | | Nanning | 5360 | 5340 | - 20 | | Kunming | 5220 | 5200 | - 20 | [4] Market Analysis - Short - term, reduced raw sugar supply pressure allows pricing based on domestic sugar cost and spot price. Long - term, if global sugar surplus increases, the price may fall to the out - of - quota import cost. Monitor weather and policy changes [4] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Analysis Price Data | Product | Price on 2025/12/29 | Price on 2026/01/06 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cotton (3128) | 15240 | 15520 | 280 | | Vietnamese Yarn (Spot) | 21410 | 21425 | 15 | [4] Market Analysis - Low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With expanding domestic textile production, good profits, and favorable Sino - US tariff reduction, demand is expected to improve next year, making it suitable for long - term long positions [4] Group 5: Egg Analysis Price Data | Location | Price on 2025/12/29 | Price on 2026/01/06 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Hebei | 2.91 | 2.98 | 0.07 | | Liaoning | 2.84 | 2.91 | 0.07 | | Shandong | 3.00 | 3.10 | 0.10 | | Henan | 3.05 | 3.20 | 0.10 | | Hubei | 3.22 | 3.24 | 0.06 | [5] Market Analysis - The egg inventory inflection point has appeared but the base is still high. The key to inventory decline is the culling rhythm. If culling accelerates, it will benefit the second - quarter egg price. If the pre - Laba spot price is low, there may be a concentrated cull [5] Group 6: Apple Analysis Price and Inventory Data | Product | Price on 2025/12/29 | Price on 2026/01/06 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong 80 1 - 2 grade | 8900.00 | 8900.00 | 0 | | | | | | | National Inventory (as of 2025/1/1) | - | - | - | | | | | | | 1 - month basis | - 687.00 | - 1100.00 | - 413 | | 5 - month basis | - 263.00 | - 714.00 | - 451 | | 10 - month basis | 793.00 | 369.00 | - 424 | [7][8] Market Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is still light. Good - quality apples maintain stable prices, while low - quality ones show price fluctuations. Short - term, the futures price may remain high - level volatile; medium - term, the pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term due to consumer competition [8] Group 7: Pig Analysis Price Data | Location | Price on 2025/12/29 | Price on 2026/01/06 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Henan Kaifeng | 12.43 | 12.93 | 0.50 | | Hubei Xiangyang | 12.60 | 12.65 | 0.05 | | Shandong Linyi | 12.52 | 12.92 | 0.40 | | Anhui Hefei | 13.05 | 13.30 | 0.25 | | Jiangsu Nantong | 13.05 | 13.40 | 0.35 | [8] Market Analysis - After the New Year's Day holiday, demand weakens and the short - term sentiment turns bearish. There is still consumption potential in January, and there may be short - term supply - demand mismatches. Capacity reduction improves long - term sentiment, but the far - month outlook depends on further near - term de - stocking. Monitor factors like slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [8]