建信期货生猪日报-20260107

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: January 7, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On the spot market, post - holiday consumption has declined but remains at a relatively high level, supply is relatively loose, and spot prices will fluctuate. On the futures market, pig supply is expected to increase slightly, demand elasticity before the Spring Festival is strong, second - fattening pressure on the market is still high year - on - year, but the previous more severe northern epidemic in the same period continues to boost the 03 contract. Currently, the market feedback shows that the epidemic has not continued to spread and only occurs sporadically seasonally, and the progress of the epidemic needs to be continuously monitored [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 6th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then bottomed out, rebounded, and fluctuated higher, closing with a positive line. The highest price was 11,810 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,620 yuan/ton, and it closed at 11,810 yuan/ton, up 0.98% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,030 lots to 354,652 lots [6] - Spot Market: On the 6th, the national average price of ternary pigs was 12.48 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - Supply Side: In the long term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. The enthusiasm for second - fattening replenishment before the festival has increased periodically, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased slightly. The slaughter of breeding enterprises in January may continue to increase slightly month - on - month, and currently, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is controllable [7] - Demand Side: Currently, second - fattening has increased, with rolling replenishment demand. Post - holiday consumption has declined, but there is still room for cured meat and sausage - making demand. Terminal consumer consumption remains at a high level. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have declined after the holiday, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have returned to pre - holiday levels. On January 6, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 189,800 heads, an increase of 11,000 heads from the previous day, a decrease of 13,000 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 10,000 heads month - on - month [7] 2. Industry News - According to Yongyi Information data, in the week of January 4, the overall slaughter proportion of small - weight pigs under 90 kg was 5.44%, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous week. The current epidemic is sporadically occurring seasonally, so the slaughter volume of small - weight pigs in many places has decreased compared with the previous period. Currently, the market feedback shows that the epidemic has not continued to spread [8] 3. Data Overview - In the week of January 4, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 319 yuan/head, an increase of 12 yuan/head from the previous week [17] - As of January 4, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 28.3 yuan/head, an increase of 96 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per pig raised with purchased piglets was - 160.8 yuan/head, an increase of 95 yuan/head week - on - week [17] - As of the week of January 4, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.66 kg, a decrease of 1.04 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.80%), a decrease of 1.16 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%), and an increase of 2.6 kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 2.06%) [17]