贵金属日评-20260107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly. Factors such as the restructuring of the international political and economic landscape, the Fed's loose monetary policy, the improvement of the global economic growth outlook, and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry will drive the upward trend. However, the large influx of investment funds also means significant price volatility. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - biased trading mindset but strictly control the position size. Long - hedgers should hedge in batches as soon as possible, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. For conservative traders, they can consider cross - variety arbitrage by going long on silver and platinum and short on gold and palladium [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - Intraday Market: The decline of the US ISM manufacturing PMI in December 2025 to 47.9% supported the market's expectation of the Fed's continued loose monetary policy. Trump's expression of the desire to annex Greenland, along with liquidity premiums and geopolitical risks, pushed the precious metals sector to continue its strong performance. However, London gold faced selling pressure around $4,500 per ounce, and the market was cautious before the release of the December non - farm payroll data. It is believed that the correction at the end of December 2025 has fully released the adjustment risks accumulated within precious metals. This week, attention should be paid to the situations in Venezuela and Russia - Ukraine, the US December non - farm payroll data, and China's price and financial data [4]. - Medium - term Market: Although Trump's 2.0 government has basically completed the internal restructuring of federal agencies and the reconstruction of the foreign trade system, Trump will still focus on promoting the MAGA reform process in 2026, with an emphasis on consolidating the geopolitical strategic space in the Western Hemisphere, which may lead to a significant increase in geopolitical risks. The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policies of central banks around the world will continue to boost the demand for reserve diversification, the strategic value of rare precious metals, and liquidity premiums in the precious metals sector. In 2026, the precious metals sector will continue the medium - term upward trend since 2024. The improvement of global economic growth momentum and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry will make the performance of silver and platinum stronger than that of gold [5]. Main Macro Events/Data - Venezuelan Situation: Venezuelan President Maduro, who was arrested by the US, pleaded not guilty in a US court on Monday, and his wife Cilia Flores also pleaded not guilty. The next court session is scheduled for March 17. In Caracas, Maduro's vice - president Rodriguez was sworn in as the interim president of Venezuela, expressing support for Maduro but not indicating resistance to US actions. The Trump administration plans to meet with executives of US oil companies later this week to discuss increasing Venezuela's oil production after the arrest of Maduro [17]. - US Manufacturing Index: The US ISM manufacturing index in December dropped to 47.9, the lowest since October 2024, and it has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months. New orders further shrank, and input costs continued to rise, indicating that the industry is still deeply affected by the Trump administration's import tariffs. Although the possibility of a short - term manufacturing recovery is small, economists still hope for a rebound this year as Trump's tax - cut policy takes effect [17]. - Trump's Desire to Annex Greenland: US President Trump has repeatedly expressed his hope to annex Greenland. He said in an interview with The Atlantic on Sunday that "we really need Greenland, absolutely. We need it for defense." The leader of Greenland responded that it was enough, and Denmark's European allies also reiterated that the future of this Arctic island must be determined by its people [17].