建信期货豆粕日报-20260107

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: January 7, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Market Review 2.1 Contract Performance | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 2601 | 3133 | 3140 | 3151 | 3130 | 3150 | 17 | 0.54% | 7063200 | -1810 | | | Soybean Meal 2603 | 3075 | 3086 | 3116 | 3084 | 3114 | 39 | 1.27% | 140835 | 553245 | 5309 | | Soybean Meal 2605 | 2746 | 2752 | 2778 | 2751 | 2776 | 30 | 1.09% | 800156 | 2174350 | -2961 | [6] 2.2 External Market Analysis During the holiday, the US soybean futures contract on the external market first declined and then stabilized, with the main contract approaching 1060 cents. The overall driving force in the external market was insufficient. The rebound at the end of December was mainly due to the price reaching an important support level and the year - on - year decrease in US soybean ending stocks, providing strong support. Additionally, the recent export sales of US soybeans were decent, with frequent large - order transactions, and China's procurement continued steadily. However, the biggest pressure in the external market came from the approaching South American harvest. Brazilian soybeans entered a critical growth stage, with abundant rainfall in the main producing areas recently, and no drought problems in most areas, and the rainfall was expected to remain adequate in the next two weeks. Some institutions had raised the production forecast to over 1.80 billion tons, significantly higher than the USDA's estimate of 1.75 billion tons and last year's 1.715 billion tons. Under the expectation of a South American bumper harvest, the rebound space of the external market was relatively limited. [6] 2.3 Domestic Market Analysis Domestically, soybean meal rebounded before the holiday. There were rumors of some customs delaying clearance and oil mills shutting down. Although the current situation was high inventory, the pressure was expected to ease in February and March based on shipping schedules. Therefore, the 03 contract had been significantly stronger than the 05 contract and the CBOT soybean contract recently. Since it was difficult to disprove the expectation that the pressure on soybeans and soybean meal would significantly ease by the end of the first quarter, this strength - weakness trend was expected to continue. However, considering that the Brazilian bumper harvest was gradually becoming a reality, it was difficult for the 05 and subsequent contracts to see significant rebound strength. [6] 3. Industry News - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, up from 75.5% a week ago. The sowing work was in the final stage, with the remaining unsown areas mainly in the northern agricultural region. The growth of sown soybeans was good, with 96.1% of soybeans rated normal to excellent and 96.1% of bean fields having suitable to optimal moisture levels. [9] - StoneX raised its forecast for Brazilian soybean production by 0.2% to 1.776 billion tons in December, and some analysts predicted the output could reach 1.8 billion tons. [9] - As of the week ending December 25, the net sales volume of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season was 1,177,745 tons, higher than 987,082 tons a week ago. The net sales volume for the 2026/27 season was 66,391 tons, compared with - 4,800 tons a week ago. [10] 4. Data Overview The report includes figures such as soybean meal ex - factory prices, 01 contract basis, 1 - 5 price spreads, 5 - 9 price spreads, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [13][16][17]