集运早报-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - MSK's week 4 price still rose by $100, and the spot price was stronger than expected (similar to the 08 contract). It is expected that the 02 contract will operate strongly [2]. - The 04 contract is expected to operate strongly in the near - term due to position transfer and basis convergence. It is still recommended to wait for opportunities to short the 04 contract on rallies [2]. - The far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors and are difficult to have an independent market in the short - term. Under the long - term logic of resuming navigation and off - season, the main strategy for the 10 contract is to go short on rallies (as the 10 contract has the lowest price and is most likely to be pulled up by funds in case of geopolitical reversal news) [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - Yesterday's Closing Price and Changes: The closing prices of EC2602, FC2604, EC2606, FC2608, and EC2610 were 1872.7, 1223.8, 1417.0, 1533.2, and 1105.3 respectively, with changes of 0.95%, 2.15%, 2.02%, 2.06%, and 2.10% [2]. - Open Interest Changes: The open interest of EC2602 decreased by 1050 to 24996, while that of FC2604 increased by 1301 to 23930, EC2606 increased by 125 to 2326, and EC2610 increased by 129 to 6184 [2]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The spreads of EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606 were 648.9 and - 193.2 respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 8.6 and - 2.2 [2]. Index Data - Scale Index: The scale index (European line) was 3387.69 on January 6, 2025 (updated weekly on Mondays), down 3.59% from the previous period [2]. - SCH Index: The SCH index (European line) was $1690/TEU on December 26, 2025 (updated weekly on Fridays), up 10.24% from the previous period [2]. European Line Spot Situation - Week 2: MSK's price remained flat at $2500, but the opening price at Hamburg Port was $2600 (+100). Some PA prices decreased, while OA prices increased. The central price was $2860, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market [2]. News - Some shipping companies issued price increase letters in mid - January. On January 1, MSC announced price increases for 20GP and 40GP containers on the European line to $2400 and $4000 respectively in the second half of January [2]. - MSK's opening price for week 3 was $2600, a $100 increase compared to the previous week. The opening price for week 4 was $2700, also a $100 increase from week 3 [2]. Geopolitical News - On January 1, the Israeli military chief of staff said they would continue to disarm Hamas. - On January 6, the Israeli Defense Forces started to strike Hezbollah and Hamas targets in Lebanon due to cease - fire violations. - On January 7, Iran warned that it might launch pre - emptive strikes if it perceived an imminent threat to its security [3].