Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The inland price has bottomed out, and the port is trading on the expectation of significant inventory reduction. However, the high MTO operation rate is a prerequisite for significant inventory reduction. Currently, the MTO profit is average, which restricts the upside of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 ships per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Pay attention to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Also, monitor the changes in oil prices. The limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors. If oil prices drive up other products, it may lift the price ceiling of methanol [1]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. The major producers and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while the social inventory remains flat. The raw material and finished - product inventories of downstream enterprises are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe and the United States are stable, and the Southeast Asian market is also stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding products is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating, with LD weakening. The number of maintenance projects in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and the US price quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, so monitor the commissioning of new plants [5]. - PP (Polypropylene): The inventory of major producers and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral, and the markets in Europe and the United States are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the price of propylene is fluctuating, and the operation rate of powder plants is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance projects, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - PVC: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. The downstream operation rate is seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. The inventory of mid - upstream enterprises is continuously accumulating. In summer, the northwest plants are seasonally under maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, monitor the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have declined slightly. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC plant maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Monitor whether subsequent export orders can support the price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and the operation rate [7]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, while the prices of various regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed. For example, the price of Jiangsu spot increased from 2150 to 2233, and the price of Northwest discounted to the futures price increased from 2400 to 2450 [1]. - Daily Changes: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the Northwest discounted to the futures price increased by 30, and the domestic basis increased by 12 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 745, and the price of North China LL increased from 6300 to 6400. The price of the main futures contract increased from 6453 to 6579 [5]. - Daily Changes: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of North China LL increased by 100, and the price of the main futures contract increased by 130 [5]. PP (Polypropylene) - Price Data: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of Shandong propylene increased from 5700 to 5770, and the price of East China PP decreased from 6095 to 6180 [7]. - Daily Changes: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of Shandong propylene increased by 40, the price of East China PP decreased by 30, and the price of the main futures contract increased by 93 [7]. PVC - Price Data: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2300, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China increased from 4580 to 4660 [7]. - Daily Changes: On January 6, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China increased by 130 [7].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20260107
Yong An Qi Huo·2026-01-07 01:44