铝日报-20260107

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: January 7, 2026 [2] - Research team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The macro atmosphere continues to improve, the A - share market has risen sharply to a ten - year high, and the industrial product sector has continued to strengthen. On the 6th, Shanghai aluminum continued to increase positions and prices, with the main contract 2602 closing at 24,335, a rise of 3.29%. The spot market is under pressure, with downstream processing enterprises' procurement demand being average due to high prices, mainly for small - scale replenishment of rigid needs. The market transactions are mostly for hedging purchases by traders. The domestic smelting enterprises have rich profits, and the operating capacity is increasing steadily. Overseas disturbances are frequent. The power contract renewal of a Mozambique aluminum plant has failed, affecting the production of 520,000 tons of capacity. Attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesia's capacity release. In terms of demand, the terminal is weak due to the traditional off - season, and the inventory has begun to accumulate under the dual pressure of environmental protection restrictions and high aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory has reached 684,000 tons at the beginning of the week. It is judged that in the medium term, aluminum prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall under the logic of the Fed's interest rate cut and loose liquidity and the strong support of gold and copper, and should be treated with a high - level and strong mindset. In the short term, the fundamental support is limited, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market performance: The macro environment is favorable, the A - share market hits a ten - year high, and the industrial product sector strengthens. On the 6th, Shanghai aluminum's main contract 2602 rose 3.29% to 24,335. The spot market is under pressure, with downstream procurement mainly for rigid needs and small - scale replenishment. The domestic smelting capacity is increasing steadily, while overseas has disturbances. The terminal demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [7] - Operation suggestion: In the medium term, maintain a high - level and strong view on aluminum prices. In the short term, with limited fundamental support, it is recommended to go long at low levels [7] Group 5: Industry News - Aluminum substitution for copper: 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, have jointly launched the implementation of "aluminum substitution for copper" standards. Some brand stores plan to launch aluminum - made household air - conditioners in 2026, while others have no such plan [10] - Company capacity expansion: Lizhong Group's second - phase project of 1.8 million ultra - lightweight aluminum alloy wheels in its Mexican factory has been initially put into production. The third Thai aluminum alloy wheel factory's annual production capacity of 3 million cast - spun aluminum alloy wheels is expected to be put into operation next year. The high - performance aluminum alloy new material projects in Chongqing, Huai'an, Changchun, and Thailand will be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year. India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 and is expanding the fifth production line of its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which will increase the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10][11]