《农产品》日报-20260107

Group 1: Overall Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, cotton, sugar, jujube, apple, corn, pig, meal, and egg, providing daily updates on futures and spot market prices, as well as industry analysis and outlooks [1][2][3] Group 2: Oils and Fats Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures maintain a narrow - range oscillation. There are concerns about potential inventory increases. In China, Dalian palm oil futures also show a narrow - range fluctuation around 8,500 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil is in a narrow - range adjustment. Brazilian soybean harvest forecasts may drag down the market. In China, although the Spring Festival stocking may reduce factory inventories, the possibility of large - scale long - position operations by funds is low [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The continuous shutdown of COFCO's rapeseed production line limits the available supply, supporting the rapeseed oil futures market. The market is focused on whether it can break through the 9,200 - yuan resistance level [1]. Market Data Summary - Soybean oil: On January 6, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan (up 0.59% from the previous day), the futures price of Y2605 was 7,912 yuan (up 0.71%), and the basis of Y2605 was 548 yuan (down 1.08%) [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan (up 0.94%), the futures price of P2605 was 8,500 yuan (up 0.14%), and the basis of P2605 was 70 yuan (up 3400.00%) [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan (down 1.49%), the futures price of O1605 was 9,130 yuan (up 0.95%), and the basis of O1605 was 770 yuan (down 23.46%) [1]. Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE cotton futures rose. The US cotton market is expected to be affected by planting area reduction, temperature rise, and precipitation decrease. In China, processing enterprises are holding prices, and the core drivers are the strong expectation of reduced planting in Xinjiang and downstream restocking. However, due to the low cost of foreign cotton and weak demand, cotton prices are expected to maintain a slightly - strong oscillation in the short term [2]. Market Data Summary - Futures market: On January 6, the price of cotton 2605 was 14,855 yuan/ton (up 1.36%), and the price of cotton 2609 was 15,040 yuan/ton (up 1.31%) [2]. - Spot market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,487 yuan (up 0.29%), and the CC Index of 3128B was 15,711 yuan (up 0.61%) [2]. - Industry situation: The import volume increased by 33.3%, the inventory of the textile industry decreased by 500.0% year - on - year, and the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6% [2]. Group 4: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE raw sugar futures rose slightly. The focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere's sugarcane production. In India, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season has increased by nearly 25% compared to the same period last year. In China, the spot market is dull, but the Spring Festival stocking demand and the positive atmosphere of bulk commodities support the price. However, due to the peak of the sugar - making season, the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3]. Market Data Summary - Futures market: On January 6, the price of white sugar 2605 was 5,259 yuan/ton (up 0.04%), and the price of white sugar 2609 was 5,275 yuan/ton (up 0.11%) [3]. - Spot market: The price in Nanning was 5,340 yuan (up 0.19%), and the price in Kunming was 5,200 yuan (unchanged) [3]. - Industry situation: The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 23.24%, and the cumulative sugar sales decreased by 42.53% [3]. Group 5: Jujube Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The acquisition in Xinjiang's jujube - producing areas has ended. Downstream demand is based on needs, and the number of buyers has increased, but the transaction has not improved significantly. After the futures rebound, the generation of new - season warehouse receipts is gradually increasing. In the short term, the fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and the futures price will oscillate and consolidate [6]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of jujube 2605 was 8,975 yuan/ton (up 0.22%), and the price of jujube 2607 was 9,045 yuan/ton (down 0.06%) [6]. Group 6: Apple Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - With the approaching of the Spring Festival stocking season, the trading atmosphere in the apple market has warmed up, but the high price may suppress consumption. The inventory pressure of ordinary apples is large. In the futures market, the short - term delivery logic dominates, the capital sentiment is strong, the futures price is stronger than the spot price, and the basis is weakening, while the delivery profit is gradually recovering [7]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of apple 2605 was 9,614 yuan/ton (up 0.70%), and the price of apple 2610 was 8,531 yuan/ton (up 0.96%) [7]. Group 7: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the corn market, there is still reluctance to sell in the Northeast and North China, and the price is relatively stable. Before the Spring Festival, there is a selling pressure expectation. On the demand side, the low inventory in the northern ports supports the price, but the acceptance of high - price corn by deep - processing and feed enterprises is limited. Policy - wise, the directional auction of imported corn and the start of competitive sales supplement the market supply. In the short term, the price will oscillate under the game of multiple factors [9]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of corn 2603 was 2,222 yuan/ton (down 0.09%), and the price of corn starch 2603 was 2,501 yuan/ton (down 0.32%) [9]. Group 8: Pig Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The spot price of pigs has returned to an oscillating pattern. After New Year's Day, the market demand has declined. Although the northern supply has decreased, the southern demand has dropped significantly, suppressing the price. In December, the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens increased, but it is expected that these pigs will be slaughtered in mid - to - late January. The overall supply in January is relatively loose. The futures market is affected by capital sentiment and is short - term bullish, but the upside is limited [12]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of the main pig 2605 contract was 12,255 yuan/ton (up 1.20%), and the price of the pig 2603 contract was 11,810 yuan/ton (up 1.29%) [12]. Group 9: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US soybeans rebounded technically, but the global supply - demand pattern and South American harvest expectations continue to suppress the market. The domestic spot market remains loose. The cost of the 05 contract is under pressure, but the downside of soybean meal is limited. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [15]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,100 yuan (unchanged), the price of M2605 was 2,776 yuan (up 0.80%), and the basis of M2605 was 324 yuan (down 6.36%) [15]. Group 10: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Based on the previous chicken - chick sales volume, the number of laying hens in January is expected to decrease, and the supply pressure will be relieved. The market is shipping smoothly, and with the approaching of the peak season, the downstream is stocking slightly, and the market sentiment is bullish. However, considering the relatively loose supply, the main contract is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [18]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of the egg 03 contract was 2,992 yuan/500KG (up 0.27%), and the price of the egg 04 contract was 3,250 yuan/500KG (down 0.03%) [18].