大越期货沪铜早报-20260107

Report Summary - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View of the Report: The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI reached 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range. There are still geopolitical disturbances, and the copper price has reached a new high and fluctuates greatly at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [3] Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap - copper policy, and December manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1% indicate a bullish trend [3] - Basis: Spot price is 103,700 with a basis of - 1,620, showing a discount to futures, which is bearish [3] - Inventory: On January 7, copper inventory increased by 3,525 tons to 146,075 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 33,639 tons to 145,342 tons compared with last week, considered neutral [3] - Market Chart: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3] - Main Position: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, still bullish [3] - Expectation: Geopolitical disturbances exist, and the Grasberg Block Cave mine event in Indonesia has fermented. The copper price has reached a new high and fluctuates greatly at a high level [3] Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: Global policy easing and tight mine supply, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, and slow mine production increase with the Freeport Indonesia mine production cut event [4][5] - Likely Negative Factors: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and the global economic situation not being optimistic, with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [5] Supply - Demand Balance - Overall Situation: There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [21] - China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance: From 2018 to 2024, production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data are presented, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [23] Other Information - Bonded - Area Inventory: The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [15] - Processing Fee: The processing fee has declined [17]