大越期货沪锌期货早报-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the report is that the short - term trend of SHFE zinc ZN2602 is expected to fluctuate strongly. The fundamentals show a supply shortage, the basis is positive, inventory is decreasing, the trading volume is increasing, and the long - position is dominant, all of which support the upward movement of zinc prices [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Zinc Fundamentals - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons [2] Zinc Futures Market on January 6 - The trading volume of zinc futures on January 6 was 326,282 lots, and the total trading value was 3.94248076 billion yuan. The open interest was 230,243 lots, an increase of 22,571 lots [3] Domestic Spot Market on January 6 - The domestic spot price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 24,440 - 24,540 yuan/ton, with an average price of 24,490 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 24,140 - 24,240 yuan/ton, with an average price of 24,190 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 24,280 - 24,380 yuan/ton, with an average price of 24,330 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 24,460 - 24,560 yuan/ton, with an average price of 24,510 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton [4] Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From December 25, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 111,600 tons to 114,000 tons. Compared with December 29, it increased by 8,400 tons, and compared with December 31, it increased by 5,300 tons [5] Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on January 6 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on January 6 were 40,845 tons, a decrease of 529 tons compared with the previous day. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 302 tons, and in Tianjin decreased by 227 tons [6] LME Zinc Inventory on January 6 - The LME zinc inventory on January 6 was 105,775 tons, a decrease of 75 tons compared with the previous day. The cancellation ratio was 7.42% [7] Zinc Concentrate Price on January 6 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions were around 21,030 yuan/ton, with an increase of 270 yuan/ton. Only in Chifeng, it was 20,530 yuan/ton [8] Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on January 6 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters increased by 370 yuan/ton. For example, the price of Hunan Xiuzhou Smelter was 24,620 yuan/ton, and that of "Xuewen World" was 25,050 yuan/ton [11] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on January 6 - The domestic processing fee for 50% - grade zinc concentrate was between 1,300 - 2,100 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 40 - 60 US dollars/kiloton [15] SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on January 6 - The total trading volume of SHFE members was 283,114 lots, an increase of 58,886 lots. The total long - position was 66,575 lots, an increase of 6,743 lots, and the total short - position was 67,932 lots, an increase of 3,560 lots [16]