大越期货棉花早报-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - The cotton market is currently influenced by both positive and negative factors. In the short - term, the main 05 contract is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, with a possibility of回调 after continuous rapid surges [4][5]. - Positive factors include potential reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area by over 10% in 2026, a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, increased export volume, enhanced replenishment willingness of downstream enterprises, and favorable factors such as basis and market trends [4][5][6]. - Negative factors are the overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, large - scale listing of new cotton, and the traditional off - season for consumption [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to be reduced by over 10%. According to the USDA December report, the 2025/2026 production is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.823 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons. In November, textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. Cotton imports in November were 120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%; yarn imports were 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast, production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons. Overall, it is bullish [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,711, and the basis for the 05 contract is 856, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast of China's ending inventory is 8.35 million tons, which is bearish [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main Position: The net long position is increasing, and the main trend is bullish [6]. - Expectation: The main factors for the current rebound are a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, increased export volume, enhanced replenishment willingness of downstream enterprises due to rising cotton prices, and significant reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area in the new year. The short - term bullish factors for the main 05 contract remain unchanged, and it will continue to fluctuate upward, with a higher probability of回调 after continuous rapid surges [5]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Forecast: In December, the global cotton production in 2025/2026 is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.823 million tons, imports are 9.522 million tons, exports are 9.524 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons [11][12]. - ICAC Forecast: In November 2025, the global cotton production in 2025/2026 is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 9.71442 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [14]. - Ministry of Agriculture Data: In 2025/2026, production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the report.