大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260107

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE market is expected to oscillate today. The fundamentals show an oversupply situation with neutral industrial inventory and weak downstream demand. The PP market is also expected to oscillate, with similar fundamentals of oversupply, neutral inventory, and weak downstream demand, while the PDH maintenance rate is starting to increase [4][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In December, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after 8 months. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. The impact of US actions in Venezuela on domestic crude oil and chemical products is expected to be limited. The demand for agricultural films is continuously weak, and packaging film enterprises mainly make purchases as needed. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6420 (+30), with overall neutral fundamentals [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -159, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.4%, indicating a bearish signal [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 39.8 tons (-9.3), which is neutral [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral situation [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to oscillate today due to oversupply, neutral inventory, and weak downstream demand [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support [6] - Negative Factors: Weak downstream demand [6] - Main Logic: Oversupply, with sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar macro - economic situation as LLDPE. The PDH maintenance rate is starting to increase. The demand for plastic woven products is mainly based on rigid demand, and the demand for pipes has declined overall. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6330 (+0), with overall neutral fundamentals [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -93, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.4%, indicating a bearish signal [7] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 49.1 tons (-4.3), which is neutral [7] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral situation [7] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to oscillate today, considering oversupply, neutral inventory, weak downstream demand, and the increasing PDH maintenance rate [7] - Likely Factors: Cost support and PDH device maintenance [8] - Negative Factors: Weak downstream demand [8] - Main Logic: Oversupply, with sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory - LLDPE: The spot delivery product price is 6420 (+30), the 05 contract price is 6579 (+130), the basis is -159 (-100). The warehouse receipt is 11324 (-26), and the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 39.8 tons [9] - PP: The spot delivery product price is 6330 (+0), the 05 contract price is 6423 (+93), the basis is -93 (-93). The warehouse receipt is 15465 (+20), and the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 49.1 tons [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity showed an overall increasing trend, with a capacity growth rate of 20.5% expected in 2025E. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [14] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity also increased, with an expected capacity growth rate of 11.0% in 2025E. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [16]