大越期货纯碱早报-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory at the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures increased from 1177 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.10%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased from 1120 yuan/ton to 1135 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.34%. The main basis was - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.51% [6] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1135 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 3.3 Soda Ash Production - The profit of heavy soda ash production was at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process was - 137.40 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process was - 88.50 yuan/ton [15] - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 81.65% [18] - The weekly output of soda ash was 71.19 tons, including 38.56 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [21] - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025, with an actual planned production of 100 tons in 2025 [23] 3.4 Demand Analysis - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 108.54% [26] - The daily melting capacity of national float glass was 15.45 tons, and the operating rate was 73.89% [29] 3.5 Inventory Analysis - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide was 140.83 tons, a decrease of 2.10% from the previous week, and the inventory was at a historical high for the same period [35] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E showed that the industry's effective production capacity, output, and apparent supply generally showed an upward trend, but there were fluctuations in the supply - demand gap [36] 3.7 Influencing Factors - Positive factors: Equipment problems led to reduced maintenance of enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow [3] - Negative factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly. In 2025, there were still large - scale production plans, and the industry output was at a historical high. The demand for soda ash decreased due to the production reduction of photovoltaic glass [4]