大越期货油脂早报-20260107

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: January 7, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Wang Mingwei [1] -从业资格号: F0283029 [1] - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 [1] - Contact Number: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Report Core View - The prices of oils and fats are in a range - bound consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are stalemated, causing the export of new US soybeans to be frustrated and prices to be under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Group 4: Daily View on Different Oils Soybean Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. Rating: Neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8320, with a basis of 408, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Rating: Bullish [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year. Rating: Bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. Rating: Bearish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased. Rating: Bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 7700 - 8100 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil in terms of the MPOB report. However, palm oil will enter the production - increase season, and the supply will increase. Rating: Neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8470, with a basis of 30, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Rating: Neutral [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year. Rating: Bullish [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. Rating: Bearish [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased. Rating: Bullish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8700 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil in terms of the MPOB report. Palm oil will enter the production - increase season, and the supply will increase. Rating: Neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10032, with a basis of 902, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Rating: Bullish [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year. Rating: Bearish [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. Rating: Bearish [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased. Rating: Bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8900 - 9300 [4] Group 5: Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish Factors: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish Factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Group 6: Supply and Demand Charts - Supply: Imported soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total oil and fat inventory [6][7][9][11][17][19][21][23] - Demand: Soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption [13][15]