大越期货豆粕早报-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For Soybean Meal (M2605): It is expected to oscillate between 2740 and 2800. The US soybean market is affected by the expected high - yield of South American soybeans and technical adjustments. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the US soybean market and improved demand. With the end - of - year demand peak and spot price premium, it may maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - For Soybeans (A2605): It is expected to oscillate between 4220 and 4320. The US soybean market has similar influencing factors as the soybean meal market. The domestic soybean market is supported by the increase in end - of - year demand, technical buying, domestic soybean storage, and rising spot prices, but is also affected by the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean Meal: Oscillates between 2740 - 2800, influenced by US soybean trends, demand improvement, and other factors [9]. - Soybeans: Oscillates between 4220 - 4320, affected by US soybean trends, domestic demand, and trade - related factors [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary China - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating above the thousand - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level. With normal weather for South American soybean planting and growth, soybean meal has returned to an oscillating range [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The increase in soybean meal demand in December supports the price, and the interaction between the US soybean market and demand has led to an oscillating pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Due to the possible speculation on US soybean产区 weather and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement, soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Soybean Meal Bullish Factors: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean producing areas [14]. - Soybean Meal Bearish Factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a high yield [15]. - Soybean Bullish Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [16]. - Soybean Bearish Factors: Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a high yield, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 3070, with a basis of 294, indicating a premium over futures. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is 117.02 million tons, a 0.22% increase from last week and a 71.18% increase from the same period last year [9]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4240, with a basis of - 36, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 710.25 million tons, an 8.53% increase from last week and a 19.48% increase from the same period last year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in [9]. - Soybeans: The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in [11]. 3.6 Other Data - Trading Volume and Price of Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal: From December 25, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the trading volume of soybean meal fluctuated, and the price also changed. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0 during this period, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [17]. - Futures and Spot Prices of Soybeans and Meal: The futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal changed from December 26, 2025, to January 6, 2026 [19]. - Warehouse Receipt Statistics of Soybeans and Meal: The warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed from December 24, 2025, to January 6, 2026 [21]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including data on harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [33][34]. - Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in Different Regions: It includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: It shows the planting area, yield, output, and other data of US soybeans and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the past six months [45]. - Imported Soybean Arrival and Other Data: The arrival of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, with an overall year - on - year increase. The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal inventory remained at a high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal output in November increased year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the stocking demand maintained a good expectation. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased with the oscillation of US soybeans, and the disk profit fluctuated slightly. The pig inventory increased, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit fluctuated slightly [48][49][51][53][55][57][59][61][63].