大越期货菜粕早报-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2360 - 2420. It is affected by the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and awaits the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. With the spot demand in the off - season and low inventory, it will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply tightening and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term exports and domestic supply [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit is being levied. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and the imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is in the off - season; there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final anti - dumping result of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Trading data: From December 25 to January 6, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3114 - 3157, and the trading volume ranged from 8.59 - 34.87 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was between 2530 - 2560, with zero trading volume. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal varied between 574 - 611 [13]. - Futures and spot prices: From December 25 to January 6, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2605) fluctuated between 2352 - 2390, and the spot price in Fujian was between 2530 - 2560 [15]. - Warehouse receipts: From December 24 to January 6, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. - Market situation: Rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, with spot prices following the fluctuations. The spot premium remained at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract remained low [18][20]. - Import and inventory: Rapeseed imports increased slightly in December, and the import cost was affected by tariff expectations. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory remained low, and rapeseed meal inventory was also at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remained at zero [23][25][27]. - Aquatic product situation: Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [35]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.