大越期货尿素早报-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The demand side, including agricultural and industrial demand, is mainly based on on - demand procurement, and the overall procurement is not active. The export internal and external price difference is large, and recent information such as new export quotas still affects the futures market. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied. It is expected that the urea futures market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The current daily production and operating rate are stable, and the comprehensive inventory continues to decline. Agricultural and industrial demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement, and the overall procurement is not active. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are stable, and the reserve demand continues to slow down. The export internal and external price difference is large, and recent information such as new export quotas still affects the futures market. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1740 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 38, and the premium - discount ratio is - 2.2%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons (-5.5), which is neutral [4]. - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The urea main contract is expected to rebound in shock. Industrial demand is mainly on - demand, inventory is being de - stocked, and the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9] Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1740 | 20 | 05 Contract | 1778 | 10 | Warehouse Receipt | 12619 | 243 | | Shandong Spot | 1740 | 20 | Basis | -38 | 10 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 119.1 | -5.5 | | Henan Spot | 1750 | 0 | UR01 | 1694 | 12 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 101.9 | - | | FOB China | 2793 | - | UR05 | 1778 | 10 | UR Port Inventory | 17.2 | - | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1745 | 15 | - | - | - | [6] Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Inventory de - stocking [5]. - Negative Factors: Domestic oversupply [5]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. - Main Risk Point: Changes in export policies [5].