原木期货日报-20260107

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - The log futures fluctuated yesterday, with the main contract LG2603 closing at 774 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 yuan per cubic meter. The spot price of the main benchmark delivery product remained unchanged, and the latest round of FOB quotes decreased by 2 US dollars. Last week, inventory started to accumulate. As of January 2nd, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week. Demand continued to decline slightly. As of January 2nd, the daily average log out - bound volume was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters from the previous week. From December 29, 2025, to January 5, 2026, 15 vessels of New Zealand coniferous logs were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 vessels and a week - on - week increase of 67%; the total arrival volume was 510,500 cubic meters, an increase of 204,500 cubic meters and a week - on - week increase of 66.8%. The 01 contract continued to be deeply discounted for delivery, and the buyer's willingness to take delivery remained poor. Currently, the log futures price fluctuates little. With low inventory and an expected decrease in later shipments, the inventory pressure is small. However, the weak demand limits the upward adjustment space. Overall, the contradictions are insufficient, and the upward and downward driving forces are limited. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On January 6th, the price of log 2601 was 767.5, up 14.0 (1.86%) from January 5th; log 2603 was 774.0, up 1.5 (0.19%); log 2605 and log 2607 remained unchanged at 785.0 and 797.0 respectively. The main contract basis was - 34.0, down 1.5 from January 5th [1]. - Spot Prices: The prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on January 6th compared to January 5th [1]. - External Quotes: The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter on January 9th, down 2 US dollars (- 1.79%) from January 2nd; the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged at 124 euros per JAS cubic meter [1]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 6.976 on January 6th compared to January 2nd. The import theoretical cost was 755.77 yuan on January 6th, down 13.31 yuan (- 2%) from January 2nd [1]. Supply: Monthly - The port freight volume was 1.914 million cubic meters on November 30th, an increase of 22,000 cubic meters (1.16%) from October 31st. The number of departing vessels from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 52.0 on a certain date, an increase of 3.0 (6.12%) [1]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory - As of January 2nd, China's total coniferous log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters (5.12%) compared to December 26th. Shandong's inventory was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters (5.29%) [1]. Demand - As of January 2nd, the daily average log out - bound volume in China was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters (- 3%) compared to December 26th. In Shandong, it was 28,900 cubic meters, an increase of 1,000 cubic meters (4%); in Jiangsu, it was 21,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 2,700 cubic meters (- 11%) [3].