瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance on the iron ore market, with a reminder to pay attention to risk control [2]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The I2605 contract increased in price with rising positions. The macro - environment features a continued moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, which boosts market confidence. In terms of supply - demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrivals increased. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills increased slightly, and port inventories continued to rise. Although ports are in a stock - piling trend, mill inventories are at a medium - low level, with potential for future stockpiling. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 828.00 yuan/ton, up 27.00 yuan. The position volume is 666,581 hands, up 25,713 hands. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 23.5 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 15,395 hands, up 4,518 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts are 1,800.00 hands, down 600.00 hands. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote at 15:00 is 109 US dollars/ton, up 2.53 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 869 yuan/dry ton, up 8 yuan. The price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 868 yuan/dry ton, up 7 yuan. The price of 56.5% Chaote powder ore at Jingtang Port is 771 yuan/dry ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 40 yuan, down 20 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (the previous day) is 106.65 US dollars/ton, up 0.85 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 2.97, down 0.07. The estimated import cost is 861 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 3,213.70 tons, down 463.40 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,824.70 tons, up 96.90 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 16,721.79 tons, up 101.83 tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 8,946.54 tons, up 86.35 tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,054.00 tons, down 77.00 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) are 22 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 36.56 tons, down 0.25 tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 0.00%, down 58.66%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 0.00 tons, down 45.90 tons. The BDI index is 1,830.00, down 21.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 22.20 US dollars/ton, up 0.26 US dollars. The iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.13 US dollars/ton, down 0.17 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 78.96%, up 0.66%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.28%, up 0.32%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,987 tons, down 213 tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.95%, up 3.10%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 14.73%, up 2.14%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 17.24%, up 0.80%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 19.72%, up 2.82% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,158.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.1 tons, showing a slight rebound. The current inventory is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter. On January 5, Australian iron ore producer Fenix Resources released its Q4 2025 operations update. The company shipped 1.241 million wet tons of iron ore in the quarter, breaking through one million tons in a single quarter for the first time and setting a new record [2].