瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of an increase in urea production is relatively high. The current agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, the trading atmosphere is tepid, and downstream buyers are resistant to high - priced goods, mostly adopting a just - in - time purchasing strategy. Industrial demand maintains rigid procurement, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises fluctuates slightly. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuates little, and the inventory reduction amplitude is limited. With the recent increase in urea prices, the downstream trend of chasing price increases may slow down, and the short - term inventory reduction amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1750 - 1800 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1790 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou urea is 21 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [2]. - The position volume of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 232,995 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2,435 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea is - 26,928 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 690 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 12,619 lots, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1740 yuan/ton, 1750 yuan/ton, 1750 yuan/ton, 1750 yuan/ton, and 1740 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 10 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 355 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 400 US dollars/ton, both with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 17.7 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 102.22 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises is 80.29%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.52 percentage points; the daily urea output is 194,200 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3,700 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 60 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 million tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,000,330 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 129,060 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 33.89%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.86 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 47.65%, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.42 percentage points [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 143 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 108 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 72 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 438.25 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of January 7, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 102.22 million tons, an increase of 0.30 million tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.29%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuated little compared with the previous period, with local inventory rising and falling differently [2]. - As of December 31, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.82%. The ports changed little this week. As the holiday approached, the pace of manufacturers' goods collection to ports slowed down, and most ports remained at a low level [2]. - As of December 31, the urea output in China was 359,100 tons, an increase of 25,700 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 1.93%; the average daily output was 194,200 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons from the previous week. The resumption of some previously overhauled devices drove an increase in domestic urea output. It is expected that the devices of 3 enterprises will be shut down this week, and the devices of 5 shut - down enterprises may resume production [2]. 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].