合成橡胶产业日报-20260107

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The supply of domestic butadiene rubber is expected to continue increasing due to sufficient resources at the spot end and increased production loads of some manufacturers. Meanwhile, downstream demand is affected by maintenance and production control, and the inventory level may further rise this week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week but may slightly rebound this week. The short - term price of the br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,700 - 12,300 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,155 yuan/ton, and the position volume is 33,981 (a decrease of 3,312). The 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons with no change [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different manufacturers increased. The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,750 yuan/ton (a rise of 150 yuan/ton), and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,800 yuan/ton (a rise of 100 yuan/ton). The basis of synthetic rubber is - 305 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 60.7 dollars/barrel (a decrease of 1.06 dollars/barrel), and the price of WTI crude oil is 57.13 dollars/barrel (a decrease of 1.19 dollars/barrel). The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 745 dollars/ton, the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 534.25 dollars/ton, the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 985 dollars/ton (a rise of 10 dollars/ton), and the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,150 yuan/ton (a rise of 200 yuan/ton) [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons with no change, and the capacity utilization rate is 71.17% (a rise of 0.56 percentage points). The port inventory of butadiene is 44,700 tons (an increase of 1,400 tons), and the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric - vacuum distillation unit is 54.94% (a decrease of 1.28 percentage points). The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons (a decrease of 0.75 million tons), the weekly capacity utilization rate is 76.76% (a rise of 0.5 percentage points), the weekly production profit is 334 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber is 34,500 tons (an increase of 500 tons), the manufacturer's inventory is 26,300 tons, and the trader's inventory is 7,180 tons (an increase of 1,490 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.301 million pieces, and that of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces (an increase of 0.663 million pieces). The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 3.27 days, and those of semi - steel tires are 47.05 days (an increase of 0.19 days). As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.53% (a decrease of 3.83 percentage points compared with the previous period and an increase of 11.05 percentage points year - on - year), and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 57.93% (a decrease of 3.76 percentage points compared with the previous period and an increase of 1.37 percentage points year - on - year) [2]. Industry News - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire sample enterprises decreased because some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday and continued production control. In December, the output of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, a month - on - month increase of 4.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.68 percentage points. As of December 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 33,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.07% [2]. Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]