瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20260107

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The report anticipates that the futures price of stainless steel will undergo a moderately strong adjustment, and investors are advised to pay attention to the upper range of 14,000 - 14,200 yuan/ton. On the raw material side, the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the decline in nickel ore grade have tightened the raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants. With a significant reduction in the RKAB quota in Indonesia next year, ferronickel production will face pressure to cut output. On the supply side, although the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved and the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decrease in production is expected to be limited, and supply pressure persists. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the decline in stainless steel exports is starting to show its impact. Market purchasing willingness is low, and overall inquiries and transactions are average. However, due to the limited supply of goods in the market, the national social inventory of stainless steel has maintained a seasonal slight decline. Technically, there has been an increase in trading volume and open interest along with a price increase, indicating a stronger bullish sentiment [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,885 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan; the spread between the 02 - 03 contracts is - 140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,506 lots, down 5,270 lots; the position of the main contract is 51,852 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 47,267 tons, down 120 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B cut - edge coils in Wuxi is 14,350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of stainless steel is 75 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 22,100 metal tons, down 800 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, up 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, down 9,700 tons. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 150,150 yuan/ton, up 6,700 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 960 yuan/nickel point, up 30 yuan. - The monthly chromium - iron output in China is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, down 38,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 553,800 tons, down 8,700 tons. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing starts is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters. - The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, up 2,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, up 700 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2]. Industry News - The People's Bank of China has clarified its key tasks for 2026, including increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments and flexibly using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. - The U.S. Supreme Court has set January 9, 2026 (Friday) as the opinion release day, which means the court may rule on the legality of President Trump's global tariff policy. - Federal Reserve officials have sent different signals regarding the future interest - rate path. Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that the policy is in a "delicate balance" between dealing with inflation and rising unemployment, and interest rates have reached a neutral level. Fed Governor Milan said that the data supports further interest - rate cuts, with a potential reduction of over 100 basis points this year [2].