瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20260107

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Despite the macro - sentiment driving the futures prices to rise strongly, the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. With the recovery of Mongolian coal and mine supplies and the downstream profit pressure remaining, the short - term trend of coking coal is expected to be a wide - range oscillation [2]. - Although the coke futures price rebounded strongly intraday due to macro factors, the fundamentals have not improved significantly and lack the power for continuous growth. The short - term trend of coke is also expected to be a wide - range oscillation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1164.00 yuan/ton, up 68.00 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1773.00 yuan/ton, up 118.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 624774.00 lots, up 19678.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 40135.00 lots, up 2067.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts: - 61315.00 lots, up 14325.00 lots; net position of the top 20 coke contracts: - 1655.00 lots, down 1108.00 lots [2]. - JM 9 - 5 contract spread: 82.50 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan; J 9 - 5 contract spread: 78.50 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 2500.00, up 700.00; coke warehouse receipts: - 17.00, down 17.00 [2]. Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Mongolian No. 5 raw coal: 953.00 yuan/ton; Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 2200.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot: 159.00 US dollars/wet ton; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1480.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan; Tianjin Port Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1650.00 yuan/ton; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1626.00 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1330.00 yuan/ton [2]. - JM main contract basis: 462.00 yuan/ton, down 68.00 yuan; J main contract basis: - 108.00 yuan/ton, down 118.00 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Fine coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants: 26.10 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; fine coal inventory: 319.70 million tons, down 9.30 million tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants: 0.35%, up 0.00%; raw coal output: 42679.30 million tons, up 2004.30 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports: 4405.00 million tons, up 231.00 million tons; imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports: 539.48 million tons, up 21.58 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises: 1052.50 million tons, up 12.78 million tons; total coke inventory: 91.60 million tons, down 0.64 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide: 802.27 million tons, down 4.45 million tons; coke inventory: 643.99 million tons, up 1.79 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises: 12.88 days, down 0.08 days; available days of coke for 247 steel mills: 12.10 days, up 0.09 days [2]. Industry Situation - Coking coal imports: 1073.15 million tons, up 13.82 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports: 72.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2]. - Total coking coal supply: 5239.57 million tons, up 183.04 million tons; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises: 71.72%, up 0.06% [2]. - Tonnage coke profit of independent coking plants: - 14.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan/ton; coke output: 4170.30 million tons, down 19.30 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide: 78.94%, up 0.62%; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate: 85.26%, up 0.32% [2]. - Crude steel output: 6987.10 million tons, down 212.60 million tons [2]. Industry News - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 35.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the daily output of fine coal was 26.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 million tons; the fine coal inventory was 319.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4 million tons [2]. - In December, 26 construction steel production enterprises carried out production cuts and overhauls, 16 less than the previous month, and the impact on production increased month - on - month, with an estimated impact on construction steel output of 259.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.74% [2].