瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The commodity market atmosphere is warm, with most industrial products rising during the day. V2605 rose 2.01% to close at 4,972 yuan/ton. Recently, the production capacity utilization rate of PVC has increased due to the restart of some devices. However, the downstream PVC products' operating rate has decreased, and the social inventory has slightly accumulated at a high level. The costs of calcium carbide and ethylene processes have decreased, and the profits have been slightly repaired. The industry's operating rate is expected to remain at a relatively high level, while the operating rate of downstream hard products such as pipes and profiles may continue to decline. The overseas market competition is fierce, and export support is limited. Affected by the improvement of news and market expectations, the PVC futures valuation has been repaired, and the spot is at a discount to the main contract. The PVC market is expected to fluctuate widely, with the daily range expected to be around 4,850 - 5,050 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,972 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan; the trading volume was 1,552,944 lots, down 187,650 lots; the open interest was 1,032,593 lots, up 6,395 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -92,242 lots, down 13,461 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,675 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,629.23 yuan/ton, up 136.54 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,740 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,648.75 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 640 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 600 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 292 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions remained unchanged at 2,700 yuan/ton, 2,606.67 yuan/ton, and 2,415 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - prices of VCM and EDC in CFR Far East and CFR Southeast Asia also remained unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC plants increased by 1.4% to 78.63% from December 27 to January 2. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.13% to 78.36%, while the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC increased by 5.01% to 79.29%. The total social inventory of PVC was 52.52 million tons, up 1.14 million tons. The inventory in the East China region was 48.06 million tons, up 1.15 million tons; the inventory in the South China region was 4.46 million tons, down 0.01 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.9, down 0.53. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.560662 billion square meters, up 31.2717 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 420.2457 billion yuan, up 30.416 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 25.04%, up 0.19%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 19.34%, up 0.18%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.74%, up 1.65%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.74%, up 1.64% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, the operating rate of PVC plants increased by 1.4% to 78.63%. The operating rate of PVC downstream decreased by 0.58% to 43.94%, with the pipe operating rate decreasing by 0.6% to 35.6% and the profile operating rate decreasing by 0.79% to 29.78%. As of January 2, the PVC social inventory was 1.0767 million tons, up 1.46% from last week [3].