瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate increased month-on-month. Before the holiday, rubber prices fluctuated at a high level. Some tire companies had holiday maintenance and closures. Except for a small amount of low - price replenishment, most companies were mainly on the sidelines and cautious in purchasing. The decline in the total outbound volume of Qingdao Port led to a significant increase in the total inventory of Qingdao Port. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. Due to the maintenance arrangements of some enterprises for about 3 days and the gradual resumption around the 4th, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,450, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,250 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was 16,180 yuan/ton, with a change of +10 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai Rubber was 130 yuan/ton, with a change of -20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,150 yuan/ton, with a change of -50 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was 140 yuan/ton, with a change of -15 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai Rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,030 yuan/ton, with a change of -10 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber increased by 513 lots to 200,122 lots, and the trading volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber decreased by 1,702 lots to 72,732 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Rubber decreased by 1,895 lots to -50,296 lots, and the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber increased by 1,498 lots to -14,041 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai Rubber increased by 2,500 tons to 103,190 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber decreased by 1,007 tons to 56,952 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,750 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,950 yuan/ton, with an increase of 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai Standard STR20 was 1,915 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 25 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 was 1,910 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 25 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,700 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai Rubber was -430 yuan/ton, with a change of -30 yuan/ton; the basis of the non - standard product of the main contract of Shanghai Rubber was -1,000 yuan/ton, with a change of -60 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,368 yuan/ton, with an increase of 130 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 218 yuan/ton, with a change of -10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets was 59.59 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.52 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of rubber sheets was 55.55 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.06 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of glue was 55 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.3 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of cup rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was -17.4 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 19.8 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 168,800 tons, with an increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, with an increase of 45,800 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.55%, with a decrease of 2.4 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.35%, with a decrease of 2.7 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.05 days, with an increase of 3.27 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.05 days, with an increase of 0.19 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.95%, with an increase of 0.89 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.78%, with an increase of 0.49 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.46%, with an increase of 1.28 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.46%, with an increase of 1.28 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In December 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold approximately 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16%; the general trade inventory was 460,300 tons, an increase of 3%. As of January 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 57.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.76 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.37 percentage points [2].