建信期货多晶硅日报-20260108

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of polysilicon is holding up, with the average price of n-type polysilicon reported by the Silicon Industry Association at 59,200 yuan/ton. However, the fundamentals still face real challenges. The expected polysilicon output in January is about 80,000 - 100,000 tons, which can meet at least 40GW of terminal demand. The downstream is in a cycle of production cuts, the sharp rise in silver prices is squeezing the profits of photovoltaic products, and terminal demand is in the off - season. The expected output of silicon wafers, cells, and modules is 46.18GW, 39.06GW, and 31.14GW respectively. The futures price has entered a stage of shrinking volume, reducing positions, and oscillating, with high operation difficulty. It will continue to oscillate until there is a significant improvement in the industry and the implementation of unexpected policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The price of the polysilicon main contract was weakly oscillating. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 58,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.13%. The trading volume was 20,581 lots, the open interest was 67,800 lots, a net decrease of 4,553 lots. The net long positions of the top twenty decreased by 2,569 lots, and the net short positions of the top twenty decreased by 1,937 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Price - The transaction price range of n - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 59,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.83%. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 64,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 55,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.5% [4]. 3.3 Market News - On January 7th, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,030 lots, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. In December 2025, the output of Chinese silicon wafer enterprises was 46.6GW, a month - on - month decrease of 14.75% and a year - on - year increase of 8.62%. It is estimated that the silicon wafer production schedule in January 2026 will be 46.18GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. In December 2025, the output of Chinese cell enterprises was 46.22GW, a month - on - month decrease of 14.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.62%. It is estimated that the cell production schedule in January 2026 will be 39.06GW, a month - on - month decrease of 15.51%. In December 2025, the output of Chinese photovoltaic module enterprises was 35.61GW, a month - on - month decrease of 16.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.59%. It is estimated that the photovoltaic module production schedule in January 2026 will be 31.14GW, a month - on - month decrease of 12.54% [5].